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濫用制裁的後果（上）/ The Consequences of Sanctions Abuse (Part 1)
文章
2023 年 8 月 16 日
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在過去20多年，美國普遍利用制裁為主要的外交工具，逐漸完善了其制裁的「工具包」。如今，美國已有多條法例賦權總統或國會制裁個人、公司、企業，甚至別國政府，讓美國可以把手伸長到國外，脅迫或懲罰其他國家地區。近年最受矚目的制裁行動，必然是美國政府基於俄烏戰爭而向俄羅斯實施的一系列制裁，以及以「國家安全」為由而向中國企業實施的制裁。往昔，美國制裁的對象大多是全球廣泛認定為「流氓」的國家（rogue states），如古巴、緬甸、朝鮮、伊朗和委內瑞拉等等，但自從中國和俄羅斯都遭到美方制裁後，美國的制裁標準變得愈來愈濫。
根據《外交政策》（Foreign Policy）7月24日的專家報道〈美國濫用制裁將會自食其果〉（America's Love of Sanctions Will BeIts Downfall），美國針對其他國家的制裁分為三個類別，分別是全面制裁（comprehensive sanctions）、針對性制裁（targeted sanctions）和出口管制（export controls）。根據哥倫比亞大學的資料庫，古巴、伊朗、朝鮮、俄羅斯、敘利亞和委內瑞拉正面對美國的全面制裁，絕大部分的商業與金融機構都不能與上述6個國家交易。包括阿富汗、伊拉克、剛果民主共和國和也門在內的17個國家則面對美國的針對性制裁，某些商業與金融機構不能與上述國家的公司、個人或政府交易。根據普林斯頓大學的資料庫，中國、厄利特里亞和斯里蘭卡等7個國家受到美國主要針對高科技產品的出口管制。除此以外，美國還向多個企業和人士實施制裁，其中包括香港和中央官員。
根據美國財政部2021年的報告，美國政府當時制裁了9000多個個人、企業和經濟產業，其中有765項是由當時新上任的拜登總統添加。據《外交政策》的統計，被美國制裁的國家合計佔全球GDP的五分之一，反映美國制裁何其氾濫。
下篇，我會討論美國濫用制裁的後果。
The Consequences of Sanctions Abuse (Part 1)
Over the past 20 years, the United States has widely utilized sanctions as a primary diplomatic tool and gradually perfected its "toolbox" of sanctions. Nowadays, the US has multiple laws empowering the President or Congress to impose sanctions on individuals, companies, corporations, and even foreign governments, extending its reach overseas to coerce or punish other countries. In recent years, the most notable sanction actions by the US government have been the series of sanctions imposed on Russia due to the Russo-Ukrainian War, as well as the sanctions imposed on Chinese companies under the pretext of "national security." In the past, the US primarily targeted countries widely recognized as "rogue states," such as Cuba, Myanmar, North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela. However, since China and Russia have also faced US sanctions, the standards for US sanctions have become increasingly indiscriminate.
According to an expert report titled "America's Love of Sanctions Will Be Its Downfall" published by Foreign Policy on July 24, the US sanctions against other countries can be classified into three categories: comprehensive sanctions, targeted sanctions, and export controls. According to the database of Columbia University, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, and Venezuela are currently facing comprehensive sanctions from the US, and the vast majority of commercial and financial institutions are prohibited from engaging in transactions with these six countries. Seventeen countries, including Afghanistan, Iraq, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Yemen, are subject to targeted sanctions from the US, with certain businesses and financial institutions unable to engage in transactions with companies, individuals, or governments from these countries. According to the database of Princeton University, seven countries, including China, Eritrea, and Sri Lanka, are subject to US export controls primarily targeting high-tech products. In addition, the US has also imposed sanctions on multiple companies and individuals, including Hong Kong and central officials.
According to a report by the US Treasury Department in 2021, the US government at that time had sanctioned over 9,000 individuals, companies, and economic sectors, with 765 of them added by the newly inaugurated President Biden. According to statistics from Foreign Policy, the countries sanctioned by the US collectively account for one-fifth of the global GDP, reflecting the rampant nature of US sanctions.
In the next part, I will discuss the consequences of the US's abuse of sanctions.
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香港疫後復常大半年，特區政府在各方各面都做了大量工作，經濟在重新開放有短暫反彈，但後勁不繼，外貿持續疲弱，本地經濟消費受內地價廉物美衝擊，市民傾向往外旅行或北上消費，本地市面特別是晚市淡靜，股市低迷，樓價下挫，最近更有一幅政府地皮流標，社會各界與特區政府都很心焦，本篇就簡單討論如何搞活夜市、股市和樓市。
疫情改變生活模式 夜市蕭條
先說如何搞活夜市。近期香港的出境人次多過入境人次是不爭事實，社交平台經常被外遊或北上消費的朋友洗版。有入境處陸路工作入境人員告訴我，兩地人流都是潮水式的，港人周末早上北上晚上回歸，內地旅客也是朝早來港晚上回家，不留港住宿。面對冷清的市面，行政長官李家超宣布要在短期內搞活夜市，財政司副司長黃偉綸負責制訂方案，一時間，爺孫落吧、大笪地、睇相占卜等等建議此起彼落。
所謂夜市，廣義來說是泛指整體夜間經濟，狹義則是指地攤經濟，例如廟街或六七十年代的大笪地。因此，我們首先要搞清楚為甚麼香港沒了夜市？夜間經濟為甚麼沒聲沒色？我認為至少有兩大原因。
第一，疫情三年的確改變了港人的生活模式。現在我們下班便回家吃飯，和家人共享天倫；加上網上平台發達，我們可以窩在家裏叫外賣、煲劇、看電影，以至網上購物，晚上外出消費的動機低了很多。像我參加那麼多地區活動，九時散席時，酒樓大廳大多只餘兩三枱散客，冷冷清清的。
時代進步 不能盲搞大笪地
第二，地攤經濟沒落，我認為是因為時代的進步。我記得小時候媽媽有帶我去上環新填地、大笪地，去照田雞、食碗仔翅，那是「平民夜總會」，是未發達社會的基層經濟特徵。數十年過去，現在香港已是高度發展、高度規管的城市，社會性質改變，市民對生活環境和衛生要求越來越高，太嘈吵熱鬧是噪音，霓虹光管太繽紛是光污染，小販不能無牌，貨物不能阻街，食物必須衛生乾淨。
今時今日，我們不能時光倒流走回頭路，盲搞大笪地，反而要想怎樣推陳出新，升級轉型。再者，多賣幾串魚蛋對推動整體經濟沒大幫助，香港要追求高質量發展。
搞夜間經濟要針對特定客群
另一點十分重要，我們要清楚界定搞夜市要吸引哪類客群？哪類人出來消費對夜間經濟最有幫助？真的是早睡早起的爺爺奶奶？「聽朝要返學」的孫仔孫女？當然不是。我認為最有力出來消費的是年輕人、專業人士和海外遊客，未來的夜市要針對他們的喜好和品味來搞，例如大型音樂會、體育活動、主題嘉年華、文藝展覽、電影節等等，要能吸引年輕人出來活動，也能吸引遊客留港過夜，才能帶動消費。香港可以多邀請例如BLACKPINK等國際歌星和內地頂流來香港搞演唱會、見面會，一定超多粉絲捧場，帶旺市面和周邊活動。
此外，商界、商場是重要持份者。商界反應快、主意多，商場可主動延長營業時間，推出多些晚間消費優惠，泊車便宜一點、看電影便宜一點、食飯購物優惠多一點，我相信有一定吸引力。
內地有政策支持夜間經濟
近年內地多個省市都有政策支持夜間經濟、地攤經濟，不少地方的夜市搞得有聲有色。上星期我到訪佛山，晚上視察了「火出圈」的燈湖西街夜市。燈湖西街本身是商業街，交通便利，位於千燈湖畔，夜色優美，四周張燈結彩，有很多打卡點，有網紅駐唱，攤檔成行成市，食物和貨品花款多，買的賣的主要都是年輕人，大家在湖邊烤串喝酒，好吃好玩。佛山的經濟結構和香港完全不同，人們收入和生活水平都比香港低，加上很多年輕人失業，在夜市擺攤是謀生選擇。附近居民不單不介意晚上那麼熱鬧，甚至會一家大細下樓幫襯，加上遊客，人流自然旺。
香港若要搞這類夜市，不論在地區選址、交通配套、牌照規管、光和噪音限制，以至夜市主題、食物和貨品特色，都要靈活處理，才有生機。
內地率先調低股票印花稅
港股近半年表現疲弱，今年1月至7月的日均成交跌至一千一百三十六億元，其中6月的日均成交更跌破千億，只有九百九十八億元。對於如何激活股市，我認為減輕股票買賣的交易成本是可行之法。內地已於8月27日出招，宣布股票印花稅由0.1%減半至0.05%，減幅達50%。我認為香港也可下調股票印花稅，否則港股稅率較內地高出4.2倍，若兩地的交易成本差異持續擴大，「北水」買賣港股的意欲將大減，影響深遠。
建議股票印花稅下調至0.1%
新民黨於今年初提交的《財政預算案》建議書已建議特區政府把股票印花稅由0.13%下調至0.1%。8月17日，新民黨向行政長官提交了《施政報告》建議書，再次建議下調股票印花稅至0.1%，我們認為可帶動交投、提高股票交易的流通性、吸引高頻交易（high-frequency trading）的券商，以及吸引更多企業來港上市。
我於7月5日的立法會大會提出書面質詢，問特區政府會否下調股票印花稅。財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇回覆指，「若按2022至2023年度股票交易印花稅實際收入作出估算，調低股票交易印花稅稅率至0.1%或0%將令政府減少分別約一百二十三億元或五百三十一億元的財政收入，佔該年度總體收入約2%或9%。」我理解減收股票印花稅將影響庫房收入，因此特區政府非常謹慎，不過我認為股市回暖後有望抵銷對庫房收入的影響，希望行政長官仔細考慮建議。
盡快改革創業板
主板及創業板（GEM）的表現也不理想。2022年，主板及創業板的總成交金額較2021年下跌25.4%，新上市公司數目由2018年的二百一十八宗，下跌至2022年的九十宗。來港上市的海外企業數目不斷下跌，由2020年的十四宗，跌至2023年上半年的零宗。中小企在香港上市成本高、時間長，最終成功上市的中小企很少，創業板由2021年第一季至今，新股上市數目維持在零宗，即是沒有上市個案，反映創業板極需改革，我認為要簡化上市手續，提高透明度，縮短時間，提高效率；或者另設新的融資平台。
此外，目前國際局勢及地緣政治嚴峻，預料今後歐美資金不容易流入香港，因此特區政府必須洞悉利害，加大力度，積極吸引中東、東盟及其他新興市場企業來港上市，推動證券市場多元化，為香港引入更多資金。
行政長官剛於8月29日宣布，由財政司司長陳茂波成立「促進股票市場流動性專責小組」，研究怎樣增加股票市場的流動性；期望「小組」接納我和新民黨的建議。
樓價下挫 地皮流標
最後說說樓市。高息環境，新盤低開，樓市低迷不是一天半天的事，根據特區政府數據，截至2023年6月底，住宅樓價已較2021年高位下跌了13%。最近亦有報導指樓價指數已連挫三個月，各類型單位的樓價指數全面下跌，其中面積1722方呎或以上的豪宅樓價指數按月下跌1.89%，面積431方呎或以下的細單位樓價指數也按月下跌1.4%，預料全年樓價指數將下跌2%至3%。
此外，今年先後有四幅地皮流標，最近一幅因為只有一間中小型發展商入標而且未達底價，因而流標。反映地產商對樓市沒信心。
雖然政府內部流傳一個說法，指地產商其實不支持特區政府大規模造地，因為會影响他們的土地儲備云云。我認為這說法難以成立，一是因為當地產商手上的地皮用盡，他們也要增加土地儲備的；二是當特區政府要推展巨型項目，例如「北部都會區」要在未來二十年造地三千公頃，也是需要地產商支持的。
「辣招」不易撤 調整從價印花稅稅階
以目前的經濟格局來說，股市樓市均低迷，的確對政府稅收及整體經濟不利。若樓市持續下跌至市民可以「執平貨」的水平，那可能是經濟大衰退，像2003年「沙士」的時候，當然不是社會樂見的。
社會上有聲音呼籲「減辣」甚至「撤辣」，我則認為打擊炒賣的「辣招」特別印花稅（Special Stamp Duty，SSD）不能隨便撤，但是可推出其他措施激活樓市。新民黨建議調整從價印花稅（Ad Valorem Stamp Duty，AVD）的稅階，凡香港永久性居民首置物業，只要該物業樓價在六百萬元或以下，劃一從價印花稅為一百元，相信可鼓勵更多中產或夾心家庭置業。
來港人才置業「先買後繳」印花稅
另外，為吸引來港人才在香港置業定居，新民黨建議「先買後繳」印花稅，即是，非永久性居民首次置業時，先不用於買樓時繳付首置印花稅，但契約上須在土地登記冊中加上「第一押記」（first charge），待他居港滿七年成為永久性居民，「第一押記」將自動取消。若他未住滿七年便賣樓，那麼他便得繳付該筆首置印花稅。
特區政府必須快速應變
其實不論是股票印花稅抑或物業印花稅的稅階稅率，都是可加可減的，特區政府必須因應市場環境，快速應變，盡快出招激活股市樓市，搞活資本市場，活躍市面氣氛，提振經濟，推進轉型，讓香港邁向高質量發展模式，才是王道。
提起8月份引人關注的新聞，「啟德郵輪碼頭甩轆」自然上榜，而且像連續劇那樣，由8月初發酵至8月尾。8月4日，「海洋光譜號」疫後首次訪港，在啟德郵輪碼頭停泊，帶來約5,000旅客，本屬喜事，皆因香港經歷疫情打擊，極度需要具高消費力的海外旅客冲喜、衝經濟。誰料當日爆出甩轆醜事，郵輪碼頭接駁交通嚴重不足，有遊客無的士，有旅客投訴排長龍候車45分鐘之久，暴露特區政府與業界並沒做好充分準備。
一個畫面勝過千言萬語（a picture paints a thousand words），旅客怨聲載道的畫面瞬間傳遍大街小巷，一個小缺口便粉碎特區政府連月「Hello Hong Kong！」的努力，既諷刺又令人失望！
2013啟用即甩轆 今仍無車搭
有心水清的評論指出，郵輪碼頭甩轆並非新鮮事。而我自從2008年當選立法會議員，已關注郵輪碼頭發展15年，其間曾公開撰文（〈郵輪產業的經濟〉及在立法會發言、提出質詢等。
郵輪碼頭在2009年動工，2013年落成啟用，並於該年6月12日迎來第一艘郵輪「海洋水手號」，當日已經出現用不到行李運輸帶，接駁交通配套不濟，的士不足，旅客候車大排長龍，有旅客候車逾兩小時，商舖十室九空等問題。立法會隨即在6月24日的大會上討論相關問題，當時，時任商務及經濟發展局局長蘇錦樑的回覆是「我們會研究可行性。」他又說：「郵輪碼頭設有5,600平方米的附屬商業區，可帶動商業活動，經濟輻射效益是非常明顯的。」
5年後，2018年3月，以啟德郵輪碼頭為母港的本地郵輪「世界夢號」原定讓旅客在啟德登船，但原來碼頭的兩個泊位已預留予「瑪麗皇后II號」及「伊利沙伯皇后號」使用，船公司要臨時安排旅遊巴及接駁艇接載旅客前往將軍澳碇泊處登船。其間有旅客因在碼頭呆等兩小時而鼓譟。
再5年後的今日，旅客落船依然無車搭，輕軌鐵路、水上的士依然得個講字，碼頭商舖依然十室九空，經濟輻射效益近零，可見歷史是驚人的相似，但特區政府不曾汲取教訓，10年來沒怎樣改善郵輪碼頭的管理，也沒好好運用疫情空窗期來優化郵輪碼頭的軟硬配套。
我擔任立法會「人事編制小組委員會」（ESC）主席多年，相當清楚立法會撥了多少資源、開設多少職位來發展郵輪產業，當中旅遊事務署的角色相當吃重。
特設專員監管 碼頭仍未優化
根據立法會2007年1月17日的文件，啟德郵輪碼頭於2007年招標，首個泊位預計在2012年啟用。當時經濟發展及勞工局要求在旅遊事務署開設一個首長級丙級政務官的編外職位，職銜是「旅遊事務助理專員（4）」，為期兩年，以推行郵輪碼頭計劃；主要職責是掌管及監督專責隊伍，監督和統籌招標，與中標者保持密切聯繫，監察計劃落實，鑑辨潛在問題，建議可行解決方法，還要制定發展策略，提升香港作為亞太區郵輪中心地位。
從上述職責反映，當時特區政府認為區區一個丙級政務官便能統籌、監督及推進整個計劃。此外，當時開設丙級政務官的年薪開支為1,360,800元，連同支援人員一併計算，年薪及福利總支出達4,604,000元。
現實上換來的是，郵輪碼頭比原定的2012年遲了一年才啟用，甫啟用便出事。
這個為期兩年的旅遊事務助理專員（4）編外職位，先後於2008年及2014年續期，直至2017年12月31日撤銷。兩個月後，即2018年2月，當時的商務及經濟發展局要求重新開設這個編外職位，為期三年；主要職責除了監察郵輪碼頭的營運，與內地及鄰近港口保持聯繫，推動香港郵輪旅遊業發展，提升香港作為區內郵輪樞紐的地位，還新增監督香港迪士尼樂園的營運，真是能者多勞，任重道遠。
當時人事編制小組委員會內很多議員都認為，監督郵輪碼頭及迪士尼樂園均屬長期工作，反建議特區政府，與其開設需不斷續期的編外職位，不如開設常額職位。特區政府當然殷然接受，於是旅遊事務助理專員（4）這個職位便由2018年起由編外變常額，至今5年。
現實上換來的是，郵輪碼頭沒有優化、沒有提升，難得有郵輪來泊又再荒亂出事，淪為頭條笑話。
加接駁交通 勞煩副司長補鑊
我會翻查這些資料，是因看不慣文化體育及旅遊局局長楊潤雄在郵輪碼頭甩轆後，企圖諉過碼頭營運商，指營運商經營十多年，理應知道郵輪到港會出現的問題。
那麼這些年來，旅遊事務助理專員（4）、旅遊事務副專員，以及旅遊事務專員、局長等一系列官員，究竟有甚麼貢獻？郵輪來港早有排期，絕不是突然泊港，專員絕對有充足時間聯絡營運商和船公司，查詢旅客資料，監督、統籌、安排接駁交通等各類配套。除了的士，其實只要安排幾條穿梭巴士綫送旅客前往就近港鐵站及熱門地區/景點，體貼一點可送每位旅客一張遊客八達通，這麼簡單的安排，只是常識。旅遊事務署那麼多專員都想不出、做不到？
區區幾條接駁巴士綫，要勞煩政務司副司長牽動數十人召開兩次「啟德郵輪碼頭交通協調統籌會議」（8月8日及16日）來補鑊，這就是楊局長說的「事實證明香港絕對有能力、有方法接待好大型郵輪到港」？
接駁交通那麼重要，因為啟德郵輪碼頭位處偏僻，坐落舊機場跑道的最南端，出入只得一條路。2007年提出的單軌列車方案在2019年遭特區政府擱置。唯一一條連接郵輪碼頭及啟德站的道路D3路都會公園段（D3 Metro Park Section），也要待到2022年8月才建成啟用，距離2007年碼頭招標足有15年。
企圖複製海運碼頭 捉錯用神
此外，我認為特區政府最初規劃啟德郵輪碼頭時，企圖複製海運碼頭的成功經驗，把啟德郵輪碼頭定位為旅遊景點，碼頭大樓設5,600平方米附屬商業區/購物商場，本身便是捉錯用神。海運碼頭位於尖沙咀，交通四通八達，本身已是成熟的遊客區，商場餐廳名店林立；啟德郵輪碼頭偏處一隅，先天條件和人流難以相提並論，因此當初即使是請來世界級建築師Norman Foster負責設計，多年來碼頭大樓都相當冷清，酒樓商舖都「做唔起」。
因此，說到底，打通啟德郵輪碼頭的道路網與交通運輸配套，讓遊客方便快速地往返景點，遠比搞「香港手信市集」這些枝葉重要。即使要吸引本地人流，也是要交通方便才有吸引力。除了市集、音樂會、啤酒節這類一次性活動，當局可考慮以較相宜的租金或較靈活的條件，引入需要大量空間的攀石場、彈床場、溜冰場、射藝中心、兒童賽車場，以至大型親子遊樂中心等，配合碼頭風景優美的天台花園，相信可吸引年輕人及一家大細前往。
8月11日，以香港為母港的郵輪「名勝世界壹號」從台灣抵港，約1,800名旅客下船離開碼頭，交通安排大致順暢。8月19日，載有4,500名旅客和1,500名船員的「海洋光譜號」再次泊港，新民黨容海恩及何敬康兩位立法會議員，天濛光六時半便在郵輪碼頭守候，視察旅客落船情況。經過政務司副司長的「高度介入」，增加免費接駁巴士綫，又派油券給的士司機，當日遊客的落船及交通安排尚算順暢，但這至多算是「過骨」，並沒有從根本解決問題。
容海恩及何敬康議員已於8月14日去信立法會「經濟發展事務委員會」召開特別會議，討論啟德郵輪碼頭的問題，屆時楊局長及旅遊專員們務必出席，接受議員質詢及問責。當初特區政府斥資逾82億來興建啟德郵輪碼頭，卻經歷十年浩劫；世界郵輪市場在疫情期間有翻天覆地的變化，香港郵輪產業如何疫後重生，啟德郵輪碼頭怎樣重新定位，是特區政府不能怠慢的工作。
今年暑假，內地電影累積票房總收入破紀錄，截至8月中已近178億人民幣（約24.4億美元），其中多齣國產電影的票房表現比《Barbie芭比》好得多。
國產電影創造高票房，除了電腦合成影像技術使用成熟，電影劇本、角色與演員演技等都有大躍進，就像現時內地票房榜排第二的《封神第一部：朝歌風雲》，單看預告片已見特技非常出色。另一齣即將在港上映的內地動畫片《長安三萬里》，畫面非常立體，製作級數媲美荷李活大製作，令人期待！
此外，國內有些電影緊扣社會脈搏，如現時票房領先、內地首部揭露境外電訊詐騙內幕的犯罪題材電影《孤注一擲》，已破票房紀錄，截至8月中，該片的內地票房已達8800萬美元，超越《Barbie芭比》上映第四個周末的全球票房。
近期上映的Meg2:TheTrench（《極悍巨鯊2：深溝》），是荷李活聯同內地商共同投資的合拍片，由英國演員 JasonStatham與中國演員吳京等主演，在內地頗賣座，反映題材迎合內地觀眾，但未有在外國票房大收。以往因為觀眾口味不同，同一齣電影未必做到同時在北美及內地都大收旺場，但是如今荷李活漸漸找到讓內地市場接受的電影題材和製作模式，未來可期。
香港的票房表現又完全不同，就像內地大收的《滿江紅》在香港票房慘淡；《無名》、《長空之王》等在內地爆紅，在香港的票房也不如預期。我認為是因為香港與內地觀眾的口味有異，香港觀眾算是「睇荷李活電影長大的」，相對地，內地片商可能因為香港市場細而未着重在港宣傳，內地頂流明星鮮有來港搞活動宣傳電影。香港要融入國家發展大局，在電影市場方面仍有很大的融合空間。
Insights from the Box Office Success of Popular Domestic Films
This summer, mainland Chinese films have achieved record-breaking box office revenues. As of mid-August, the cumulative box office has reached nearly 17.8 billion RMB (approximately 2.44 billion USD), with the box office performance of many domestic films far surpassing that of "Barbie."
The success of domestic films at the box office can be attributed to the mature use of computer-generated visual effects and significant advancements in film scripts, characters, and acting. For instance, the current second-ranked film at the mainland box office, "Creation of God's 1: Kingdom of Storms," showcases impressive special effects even in its trailer. Another mainland animated film, "Chang'an Thirty Thousand Miles," which is soon to be released in Hong Kong, boasts visually stunning and Hollywood-level production, creating high anticipation.
Furthermore, some domestic films have closely tapped into social trends. For example, the current box office leader, "No More Bets," is the first mainland film to expose the inner workings of overseas cyber fraud. It has shattered box office records, with its mainland box office reaching 88 million USD as of mid-August, surpassing the global box office of "Barbie" in its fourth weekend.
Recently released film "Meg 2: The Trench" is a co-production between Hollywood and mainland Chinese investors. Starring British actor Jason Statham and Chinese actor Wu Jing, the film has performed well in the mainland market, catering to the preferences of mainland audiences. However, it has not achieved significant success in foreign box offices. In the past, due to different audience tastes, a film could not necessarily perform exceptionally well in both North American and mainland markets simultaneously. But nowadays, Hollywood is gradually finding film subjects and production models that are accepted by the mainland market, promising a bright future.
The box office performance in Hong Kong, on the other hand, is entirely different. For example, while "Full River Red" achieved great success in the mainland, it performed poorly in Hong Kong. Films like "The Hidden Blade" and "Born to Fly" gained popularity in the mainland but did not meet expectations in the Hong Kong box office. I believe this is due to differences in audience preferences between Hong Kong and the mainland. Hong Kong audiences are considered to have grown up watching Hollywood films, whereas mainland film companies may not have focused on promoting their films in the Hong Kong market due to its smaller size. Top mainland stars rarely come to Hong Kong for promotional activities. For Hong Kong to integrate into the overall national development, there is still significant room for integration in the film market.
《Barbie芭比》改寫芭比文化
上文談到《Barbie芭比》電影在美國掀起熱潮，本篇談該電影如何顛覆美國固有的男女性別定型。
很多美國人從小就玩芭比玩具，非常熟悉男女主角肯尼（Ken）與芭比（Barbie），芭比公仔是美女象徵，金髮藍眼，住在童話樂園，不愁衰老，電影版由身形高䠷、形象健美的Margot Robbie飾演芭比，維肖維妙。
電影中的芭比樂園是母系社會，女權至上，女性擔當很多地位高的職位。故事講述芭比因出現身體的毛病，需要治理，於是就由芭比樂園去到現實世界找尋能拯救她的人，卻發現現實世界長期是男性主導的父系社會，父權主義根深柢固，只是隱藏更深。
她在現實世界遇到她的拉美裔舊主人，生活刻苦，社會地位低微，反映拉美裔等少數族裔在現實生活中受到的歧視。就在芭比遭遇危難時，舊主人協助她脫險，讓她非常感激。而在拯救芭比脫險的過程，她也見證了那對拉美裔母女重修舊好，打破二人之間的隔閡。
而電影也刻劃了芭比和她男友肯尼在關係上的改變，他們尋回了各自的身分，毋須互相依賴，其中很多場面讓人會心微笑。
現實世界不像童話，電影折射美國少數族裔被歧視的情况、性別平等、身分認同、種族關係、玩具公司象徵的資本家剝削等等，都是美國社會現實的問題。電影透過一對拉美裔母女幫助芭比逃亡、脫險，從過程中表達女性的獨立、堅毅與能力，不必是男性的附屬，當然也有人性、母愛等等的表達。
而我認為《Barbie芭比》引人入勝之處，在於某程度上賦予芭比文化新的定義，改變美國人對女性的看法，改寫女性的存在價值，亦向觀眾表達女性不應只看身材與美貌，而應看內涵，電影的編劇與導演應記一功，電影能夠在美國火起來，不無道理。
"Barbie" Redefining Barbie Culture
In the previous section, we discussed how the film "Barbie" created a wave of excitement in the United States. In this section, we will explore how the film subverts the traditional gender stereotypes deeply rooted in American society.
Many Americans grew up playing with Barbie dolls and are very familiar with the main characters, Ken and Barbie. Barbie dolls are symbols of beauty, with their blonde hair, blue eyes, and a life in a fairy tale paradise where aging is not a concern. In the film adaptation, Barbie is portrayed by Margot Robbie, who is tall and physically fit, presenting a wonderful transformation.
In the movie, Barbie's Dreamland is a matriarchal society where female empowerment prevails, and women hold many high positions. The story revolves around Barbie discovering a physical flaw in herself that needs to be fixed. She leaves Barbie Dreamland and enters the real world in search of someone who can save her, only to find a patriarchal society dominated by men, where deep-rooted paternalistic attitudes are merely hidden beneath the surface.
In the real world, she encounters her Latina former owner, who leads a difficult life with a low social status, reflecting the discrimination faced by Latina and other minority ethnic groups in real life. When Barbie finds herself in danger, her former owner assists her and she is immensely grateful. Throughout the process of saving Barbie, she also witnesses the healing of the relationship between the Latina mother and daughter, breaking down the barriers that had separated them.
The film also depicts the changes in Barbie's relationship with her boyfriend Ken. They reclaim their individual identities and no longer need to rely on each other. Many scenes in the film evoke a subtle smile.
The real world is not like a fairy tale, and the film reflects real issues in American society such as discrimination against minority ethnic groups, gender equality, identity, racial relations, and the exploitation symbolized by toy companies and capitalism. Through the journey of a Latina mother and daughter helping Barbie escape and survive, the film expresses female independence, resilience, and capabilities, emphasizing that women should not be seen as mere appendages to men. It also portrays aspects of humanity and maternal love.
I believe that what makes "Barbie" captivating is that it, to some extent, gives a new definition to Barbie culture, changes how Americans view women, and rewrites the value of women's existence. It also conveys to the audience that women should not be judged solely on their appearance but rather on their substance. The film's screenwriters and directors deserve credit for their work, and there is a reason why the film gained popularity in the United States.
今年暑假，《Barbie 芭比》和《奧本海默》（Oppenheimer ）這兩齣類型截然不同的電影，7 月21 日同日在美國上映，並同創票房奇蹟。《Barbie 芭比》連續4 星期成為北美票房冠軍，全球票房接近12 億美元，成為華納兄弟史上票房第二高的電影，Greta Gerwig 榮登北美影史票房最高女導演。
《奧本海默》講述原子彈之父的故事，電影主題嚴肅，氣氛沉重，上映3星期全球票房已達6 億美元，成為史上票房最高的二戰題材電影。在香港，《奧本海默》比《芭比》更賣座。
兩齣電影同惹政治爭議。《Barbie 芭比》其中一個畫面出現涉及南海主權爭議的「九段線」地圖，越南禁止上映，菲律賓一度考慮禁映，後來才獲開綠燈。
《奧本海默》因牽涉製造殺人武器原子彈，遭日本禁映。對於二戰期間遭受兩顆原子彈洗劫的日本而言，可以想像民眾觀看這電影的感受，日本的禁映決定可以理解。
芭比本身就是美國的文化產物，是深受美國人歡迎的玩具，也代表某種美國價值觀，《Barbie 芭比》能在美國以至世界多地引發熱潮，一點也不意外。例如深受「芭比文化」、芭比公仔影響的墨西哥，便同樣賣座。
反之，芭比在中國沒有那樣的號召力和影響力。對內地觀眾來說，芭比公仔不是他們的兒時玩具，不是集體回憶。而經濟發展以來，內地年輕人喜歡上網、玩手遊、網上購物等，與芭比沒甚共鳴，大抵迪士尼或環球影城的電影角色也比芭比受歡迎，因此，即使《Barbie芭比》有在內地上映，但截至8 月初的票房只有約2900 萬美元，在票房榜上僅排第五，遠遠不及國產主流電影。
"Barbie" Movie's Box Office Success
This summer, two drastically different films, "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer," were released in the United States on July 21st and both achieved box office miracles. "Barbie" remained the North American box office champion for four consecutive weeks and grossed nearly $1.2 billion worldwide, making it the second highest-grossing film in Warner Bros. history. Greta Gerwig became the highest-grossing female director in North American film history.
"Oppenheimer" tells the story of the father of the atomic bomb. The film's theme is serious and the atmosphere is heavy. After three weeks of release, it has already grossed $600 million worldwide, becoming the highest-grossing World War II-themed film in history. In Hong Kong, "Oppenheimer" outperformed "Barbie" in terms of box office sales.
Both films have also sparked political controversies. In "Barbie," there is a scene that involves the disputed "nine-dotted line" in the South China Sea. Vietnam banned its release, and the Philippines considered banning it before ultimately giving it the green light.
"Oppenheimer" was banned in Japan due to its depiction of the creation of the atomic bomb, which was a sensitive topic for a country that suffered the devastation of two atomic bombs during World War II. The decision to ban the film in Japan can be understood considering the sentiments of the Japanese people.
於本年度立法會的最後一個會議（7月13日），立法會大會通過《2022年發展（城市規劃、土地及工程）（雜項修訂）條例草案》這條「以一改六」的條例草案，新法例將於9月1日生效，預料對「北部都會區」及「交椅州人工島」這兩個龐大基建計劃均有正面影響。這條例草案是由我擔任條例草案委員會主席，審議工作歷時六個多月。「以一改六」是指今次條例草案一次過修訂了六條條例，分別為：
‧《收回土地條例》（《第124章》）
‧《前濱及海床（填海工程）條例》（《第127章》）
‧《土地徵用（管有業權）條例》（《第130章》）
‧《城市規劃條例》（《第131章》）
‧ 《道路（工程、使用及補償）條例》（《第370章》）
‧《鐵路條例》（《第519章》）
修例縮短「造地」時間
條例修訂後將從多方面簡化發展程序，拆牆鬆綁，提升效率，包括：把諮詢時間劃一、城市規劃及收回土地的諮詢程序可同步進行、城規會的諮詢可壓縮、特區政府可以在未完成制訂分區大綱圖之前便開始填海、若項目面績不超過0.5公頃的小型工程，地政署長可不用刊憲而直接批准工程等等；預料將來可縮短「造地」（由「生地」變「熟地」）時間，大型發展項目由13年減至7年，小型土地則由6年減至4年。
如此複雜的修例工程，得以在六個月內（共13次會議）順利完成，並且舉行了疫情以來首次復辦的公聽會，實有賴發展局常秘帶領其下屬，以及立法會秘書處眾多同事，做了大量清楚細緻的工作，多名委員提出寶貴的意見，促進效率及確保民意獲得充分考慮。若在以往反對派當道矢志拉布搞對抗的年代，大抵是通過無期。如今情況截然不同，據知條例三讀通過時，在電視機旁的發展局官員高興得拍手稱慶。
破解冗長程序
香港土地供應滯後，原因之一便是程序過多，冗長繁複。例如區區一個梅窩碼頭改善工程，都因為要先制訂大綱圖、聘顧問公司做顧問報告，再分階段提交立法會發展事務委員會、工務工程小組委員會及財委會審理等等，轉眼便20年，費時失事。類似例子比比皆是，今次修例簡化了這些程序，即使小型工程的「造地」時間仍需4年，已算是個好開始。
另外，「交椅州人工島」這類超長期項目，實在不應該受死板的程序規限，例如必須先完成規劃大綱圖才可開展其他工作。道理很簡單，科技、人工智能的發展一日千里，有誰說得準20年後人類的上班及生活模式會變成怎樣？硬以今日的目光規劃20年後的土地用途，真的有效嗎？今次修例便簡化了程序，增加了推進「交椅州人工島」項目的靈活性。
收地是「北都」首要挑戰
「北部都會區」則因為幾個新發展區，例如古洞北／粉嶺北、洪水橋 ／廈村、元朗南等，已在發展中，今次修例對這些已啟動的新發展區幫助較輕微。不過，「北部都會區」這個預計需時20年建設、容納250萬人口居住、提供65萬個工作職位的巨型發展項目，仍要面對不少挑戰。
作為香港未來的發展新引擎，「北部都會區」整合、擴容元朗及北區，佔地共300平方公里（約3萬公頃）。要開發這麼多土地，意味著首要挑戰就是收地，特區政府必須仔細考量。
收地需付天價賠償金
首先，若特區政府以《收回土地條例》這尚方寶劍收地，將需付上天價賠償金，皆因根據最新修訂的「收回土地特惠補償率」，自2023年4月1日起，第一級別（因發展用途而收回的土地）計，每平方呎農地賠償1267元，屋地則計估價再加每平方呎賠償2514元，十分「慷慨」。
此外，據知「北部都會區」大約有1000公頃是私人發展商的土地，特區政府應以哪種方式和發展商達成合作，才能互惠共贏？假如發展商協助特區政府要求興建量子科技中心，特區政府是否容許發展商更改土地用途發展住宅？
難以安置棕地作業
還有就是如何處理棕地及賠償棕地上的經濟作業者。根據特區政府提交立法會發展事務委員會的討論文件（立法會CB(1)359/2023(05)號文件），新界大約有12組具發展潛力的棕地群，涉及約47公頃棕地。同時，棕地上有倉儲、汽車維修、貨櫃車場，甚至製木廠、冰粒廠及醬油廠等等經濟作業，若特區政府要回收棕地，便涉及如何賠償或安置這些經濟作業。除了提供「特惠津貼」，特區政府期望這些作業遷入新興建的「多層現代產業大樓」繼續營運。可是這個「多層現代產業大樓」，特區政府提出多年，仍只聞樓梯響，不知能否趕得上收棕地時間表？況且也不是所有作業種類也適宜在「大樓」內營運，困難可想而知。
如何融資二萬億
「北部都會區」預計興建「三鐵三路」，提供逾92萬個住宅單位，究竟需花費多少？特區政府至今未能提供詳細預算，只透露將於年底完成規劃大綱圖。有專家估算整個項目需耗費2萬億甚至3萬億，那麼如何融資便是另一個重大挑戰。
我留意到團結香港基金提出了「五招十三式」（8月2日），包括引入多種私人參與形式、土地業權人可透過共同投資的形式參與發展、要求土地業權人鎖定有意進駐的龍頭創科企業、土地業權人可選擇在土地上興建人才公寓、推出「新田科技城發展債券」等等，值得討論。
概念上，引入私人發展商、引入龍頭企業，都是好事。但仔細想想，在實際操作上可能有矛盾。發展商當然希望特區政府盡快與他們洽商並達成雙贏協議，他們可按特區政府要求興建指定項目（例如量子科技中心），特區政府則提供土地讓他們興建住宅等等；但現實是在「招商引資」方面，目前也不知道特區政府能在甚麼時候成功引進哪類哪家企業。又若成功進駐的企業有能力自己興建人才公寓、自己興建指定項目，那麼發展商便難有「用武之地」。
發行「基建債券」
至於推出「新田科技城發展債券」，我認為並不切實可行。
我並不反對發債，事實上，不少立法會議員也建議特區政府發債，為「北部都會區」融資。政府發行的債務屬「主權債務」（Sovereign Debt），是因為有政府擔保，市場相信該政府，因此會購入該政府所發的債券，而特區政府是有條件發債的。不過，年期越長的債券，市場會覺得風險越高，息口也會越高。而政府的經濟回報與債券持有人的回報是不同的。因此，若特區政府發債融資，應該是發行整體的「基建債券」，而不是單一項目的「新田科技城發展債券」，而發債的年期及特區政府的利息支出等等，還需從長計議。
賣「地花」建議新穎
另一方面，我亦留意到，發展局局長提出賣「地花」融資（《香港經濟日報》7月10日），即是一反平整土地後才招標的傳統做法，改為「未整土地先招標」，美其名是讓投資者提早進場，實際上是讓投資者提早付款。
從特區政府的角度看，能加快融資，加快推進項目，當然是美事；從發展商的角度看，便得計算買了的「地花」將會在哪年哪月獲得怎樣的回報，期間風險是否可控等等。「地花」建議新穎，未有先例，能否成功吸引發展商，是未知數。
期待公布「北都」規劃大綱
總括而言，特區政府要加快推進「北部都會區」發展，便得有方法應對收地及融資兩大挑戰，期望年底公布的規劃大綱，將會帶來明確方向。
New Challenges for the Northern Metropolitan Development
In the last Legislative Council meeting of this year (July 13), the Legislative Council passed the "Development (Town Planning, Lands and Works) (Miscellaneous Amendments) Bill 2022," a bill that consolidated amendments to six ordinances into one. The new law will take effect on September 1 and is expected to have a positive impact on the development of the "Northern Metropolitan Region" and "Kau Yi Chau artificial islands" artificial islands projects. I chaired the Bills Committee that scrutinized this bill over six months.
The bill amended six ordinances in one shot:
Land Resumption Ordinance (Chapter 124)
Foreshore and Sea-bed (Reclamations) Ordinance (Chapter 127)
Land Valuation (Possessory Title) Ordinance (Chapter 130)
Town Planning Ordinance (Chapter 131)
Roads (Works, Use and Compensation) Ordinance (Chapter 370)
Railways Ordinance (Chapter 519)
The amendments aim to streamline the development process in several ways, such as standardizing consultation periods, allowing planning and land resumption consultations to take place concurrently, shortening Town Planning Board consultations, allowing the government to start reclamation works before finalizing outline zoning plans, and allowing the Lands Department Director to approve small projects of less than 0.5 hectares without gazette notice. This is expected to significantly reduce the time required for "land production" (transforming land for development), from 13 years to 7 years for large projects, and from 6 years to 4 years for small plots.
It was no small feat to pass such a complex set of amendments within six months (over 13 meetings), including the resumption of public hearings for the first time since the pandemic. This was made possible by the diligent work led by development bureau officials and Legislative Council Secretariat staff, as well as valuable input from committee members, to enhance efficiency while ensuring public views are adequately considered. In previous years under opposition control bent on filibustering, this bill likely would not have passed. But the situation is now different - it is said officials at the development bureau were happily clapping upon the bill's third reading passage on television.
Breaking Lengthy Procedures
One of the reasons for Hong Kong's lagging land supply is the overly lengthy procedures. For example, a simple Pier improvement project in Mui Wo had to go through hiring consultants to conduct studies, and multiple rounds of submissions to LegCo panels such as the Development Affairs Panel, Works Subcommittee, and Finance Committee - by the time two decades had passed, costs ballooned and benefits diminished. There are countless such examples. While the amendments only reduced the "land production" time for small projects to four years, it is still an encouraging start to streamline such processes.
Moreover, ultra-long-term projects like the Kau Yi Chau
artificial islands should not be constrained by rigid procedures. For example, having to complete outline zoning plans before commencing other works makes little sense - how can we confidently plan land use 20 years in advance based on today's understanding, with technology and human lifestyles advancing rapidly each day? The amendments sensibly increased flexibility in advancing this project.
Land resumption poses main challenge for Northern Metropolis
For the Northern Metropolis development, which aims to house 2.5 million people and provide 650,000 jobs over 20 years through integrated development of Yuen Long and North districts spanning 300 sqkm, the biggest challenge lies in land resumption.
First, resuming land through the Lands Resumption Ordinance will require exorbitant compensation at the revised “special ex gratia rates” - from April 2023, HK$1,267/sqft for agriculture land and HK$2,514/sqft plus market value for building land.
Additionally, about 1,000 hectares in the area comprises private developer land. How can the government cooperate with developers in a mutually beneficial manner, for example allowing land use changes in exchange for building a quantum computing centre ？
It will also be difficult to relocate the many brownfield economic operations, such as warehouses, vehicle repairs, containers yards, as well as woodworking, ice manufacturing and soy sauce factories. While special subsidies are offered, can these businesses realistically transplant to “modern industrial towers”, which have been long promised but not delivered?
Issues of funding the HK$2-3 trillion project
The Northern Metropolis plans 92,000 residential units served by “Three Rails and Three Roads” infrastructure, but funding details and budget remain unclear pending an outline zoning plan by year-end. Some estimate a HK$2-3 trillion price tag - how will this be financed?
While private participation, partnering with anchor enterprises, and bonds are discussed, practical challenges abound in implementation. Early land premium sales are an innovative idea but success depends on developers' willingness and return calculations.
Overall, expediting the Northern Metropolis requires addressing land resumption and funding head-on. Hope the forthcoming outline plan provides clear direction.
8 月9 日，拜登總統宣布最新行政命令，管控美國流入中國的資金。這次行政命令主要限制美國企業未來在中國的半導體、量子計算和人工智能等敏感科技領域上投資，繼續以國安為由推行拜登政府「小院高牆」（small yard, high fence）的對華政策。
《經濟學人》（The Economist ）8 月10 日的專家報道〈喬．拜登的中國戰略行不通〉（Joe Biden's China Strategy Is Not Working ）認為，拜登政府的對華政策至今適得其反，不但對美國經濟造成沉重的負擔，而且沒有達到拜登預期的效果。報道指，美國2018 年從「低成本」亞洲國家進口的商品有三分之二來自中國，去年已下降到一半。從表面上看，美國經濟逐漸與中國脫鈎；然而，中國只是從製造製成品轉移到製造半製成品，而其他國家則會在中國製造的半製成品上加工，中國在生產鏈中的角色並沒有完全被取代。隨着美國轉向其他發展中國家進口商品，這些發展中國家紛紛增加從中國進口半製成品，以滿足美國的進口需求。舉例說，因為美國在與中國脫鈎過程中愈發依賴墨西哥，墨西哥從中國進口的汽車零件在過去5 年翻了一倍。
再者，大多數中國企業因不能夠直接將產品出口到美國，會選擇將製造廠搬到其他發展中國家，再將產品出口到美國。因此，拜登的對華政策也間接拉近中國與其他生產國家的關係，增加雙方的經濟聯繫，從而導致這些國家的利益與美國的利益對立起來。
由此可見，全球貨品的生產鏈根本無法打斷，拜登針對中國的政策只會令生產鏈變得更錯綜複雜。《經濟學人》的專家指，拜登政府只是在短期內營造了與中國經濟脫鈎的虛象，但同時損害了許多美國企業的商業利益，讓他們的營運成本不斷提升。長遠而言，美國可能會因此得不償失，遭其他國家疏遠。
Biden Administration's Counterproductive China Policy
On August 9th, President Biden announced the latest executive order to regulate funds flowing from the United States into China. This executive order primarily restricts future investments by American companies in sensitive technology sectors in China, such as semiconductors, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence. The Biden administration continues to pursue its "small yard, high fence" policy towards China, citing national security as the reason.
An expert report titled "Joe Biden's China Strategy Is Not Working" published by The Economist on August 10th argues that the Biden administration's China policy has backfired thus far. It not only imposes a heavy burden on the U.S. economy but also fails to achieve the desired effects anticipated by Biden. The report points out that in 2018, two-thirds of the goods imported by the United States from "low-cost" Asian countries originated from China, but that number dropped by half last year. Superficially, the U.S. economy seems to be gradually decoupling from China. However, China has merely shifted its manufacturing from finished goods to semi-finished goods, and other countries are processing these semi-finished goods manufactured in China. China's role in the global supply chain has not been completely replaced. As the United States turns to import goods from other developing countries, these countries have increased their imports of semi-finished goods from China to meet U.S. demand. For example, due to the U.S. increasing reliance on Mexico during the decoupling process with China, Mexico's imports of auto parts from China have doubled in the past five years.
Furthermore, since most Chinese companies cannot directly export their products to the United States, they opt to relocate their manufacturing plants to other developing countries and then export their products to the U.S. Consequently, Biden's China policy indirectly brings China closer to other manufacturing countries, increases economic ties between them, and leads to conflicts of interest between these countries and the United States.
From this perspective, it is evident that the production chain of global goods cannot be completely severed, and Biden's policy towards China only makes the production chain more complex. The experts from The Economist argue that the Biden administration has merely created an illusion of decoupling from the Chinese economy in the short term but has simultaneously harmed the commercial interests of many American businesses and caused their operating costs to continuously rise. In the long run, the United States may suffer more losses and be alienated by other countries as a result.
以往，大部分受美國制裁的國家也是普遍被西方稱為「全球南方」（the Global South）的發展中國家，然而，因為中國的經濟實力和外交影響力驚人，使之成為芸芸受制裁國家中的領導，並讓美國漸漸感受到濫用制裁的苦果。
根據《外交政策》（Foreign Policy）7月24日的專家報道，美國對制裁的持續依賴導致愈來愈多國家積極鑽空子，企圖規避美國的制裁措施。《政客》（Politico）2022年11月9日的報道指出，遭美國全面制裁的伊朗多年來利用無數幌子公司（front companies）和外國銀行來逃避美國制裁，每年處理至少達數百億美元的交易。儘管特朗普在任的時候不斷打壓伊朗，對其實施更多制裁，伊朗的經濟仍然有所增長。
再者，愈來愈多國家，無論遭制裁與否，傾向發展與西方平行的反制裁世界經濟，企圖創造能合法迴避美國制裁的經濟體系。近期，中國提議與其他金磚國家建立獨特的貿易貨幣，令美國無法再利用美元的主導地位推行更多制裁措施，俄羅斯與巴西政府已表示支持。在5個金磚國家中，只有中國與俄羅斯正面對美國政府的制裁。然而，其他未受制裁國家對建立獨特貿易貨幣也表示支持，儘管這些國家與美國一直保持友好關係，也會擔心美國未來會使用制裁招數對付他們。另外，如俄羅斯等受美國全面制裁的國家無法使用全球金融機構廣泛使用的信息網絡SWIFT，便會有更多國家選擇採用中國的人民幣跨境支付系統（CIPS）。
此外，中國也因美國對其他國家的制裁而受益。舉例說，由於中國只履行聯合國安全理事會的制裁，但不會實施美國單方面的制裁要求，因此能以低價購入西方國家不敢買的石油，包括產自委內瑞拉、伊朗和俄羅斯的石油，增加這些受制裁國家的收入。
美國多年來濫用制裁的後果日積月累，假以時日將削弱美國在全球經濟的主導性。
The Consequences of Abusing Sanctions (Part 2)
In the past, most countries subjected to US sanctions were generally referred to as the "Global South," developing countries that were targeted by the West. However, due to China's remarkable economic strength and diplomatic influence, it has emerged as a leader among the numerous countries facing sanctions, causing the United States to gradually experience the bitter consequences of abusing sanctions.
According to an expert report by Foreign Policy on July 24, the continued reliance of the United States on sanctions has led to an increasing number of countries actively seeking loopholes to evade US sanctions. A report by Politico on November 9, 2022, revealed that Iran, which has faced comprehensive US sanctions for years, has utilized numerous front companies and foreign banks to circumvent US sanctions, processing transactions worth at least billions of dollars annually. Despite the Trump administration's relentless pressure and imposition of additional sanctions on Iran, the country's economy has still managed to grow.
Furthermore, an increasing number of countries, whether under sanctions or not, are inclined to develop an alternative anti-sanctions global economy parallel to the West, attempting to create an economic system that can lawfully bypass US sanctions. Recently, China proposed the establishment of a unique trade currency in collaboration with other BRICS countries, preventing the United States from utilizing the dominance of the US dollar to impose further sanctions. Russia and Brazil's governments have already expressed their support for this initiative. Among the five BRICS countries, only China and Russia currently face direct US government sanctions. However, other non-sanctioned countries have also expressed support for establishing a unique trade currency, despite maintaining friendly relations with the United States, as they are concerned about potential future use of sanctions by the US against them. Additionally, countries such as Russia, which are subjected to comprehensive US sanctions, are unable to utilize the widely used SWIFT network for global financial transactions, leading to an increased inclination to adopt China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS).
Furthermore, China has also benefited from US sanctions on other countries. For example, as China adheres only to sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council but does not implement unilateral US sanctions, it can purchase oil at lower prices from Western countries that are hesitant to do so, including oil from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, thereby increasing the income of these sanctioned countries.
The consequences of the United States' long-standing abuse of sanctions have been accumulating over time and will gradually weaken its dominance in the global economy.
在過去20多年，美國普遍利用制裁為主要的外交工具，逐漸完善了其制裁的「工具包」。如今，美國已有多條法例賦權總統或國會制裁個人、公司、企業，甚至別國政府，讓美國可以把手伸長到國外，脅迫或懲罰其他國家地區。近年最受矚目的制裁行動，必然是美國政府基於俄烏戰爭而向俄羅斯實施的一系列制裁，以及以「國家安全」為由而向中國企業實施的制裁。往昔，美國制裁的對象大多是全球廣泛認定為「流氓」的國家（rogue states），如古巴、緬甸、朝鮮、伊朗和委內瑞拉等等，但自從中國和俄羅斯都遭到美方制裁後，美國的制裁標準變得愈來愈濫。
根據《外交政策》（Foreign Policy）7月24日的專家報道〈美國濫用制裁將會自食其果〉（America's Love of Sanctions Will BeIts Downfall），美國針對其他國家的制裁分為三個類別，分別是全面制裁（comprehensive sanctions）、針對性制裁（targeted sanctions）和出口管制（export controls）。根據哥倫比亞大學的資料庫，古巴、伊朗、朝鮮、俄羅斯、敘利亞和委內瑞拉正面對美國的全面制裁，絕大部分的商業與金融機構都不能與上述6個國家交易。包括阿富汗、伊拉克、剛果民主共和國和也門在內的17個國家則面對美國的針對性制裁，某些商業與金融機構不能與上述國家的公司、個人或政府交易。根據普林斯頓大學的資料庫，中國、厄利特里亞和斯里蘭卡等7個國家受到美國主要針對高科技產品的出口管制。除此以外，美國還向多個企業和人士實施制裁，其中包括香港和中央官員。
根據美國財政部2021年的報告，美國政府當時制裁了9000多個個人、企業和經濟產業，其中有765項是由當時新上任的拜登總統添加。據《外交政策》的統計，被美國制裁的國家合計佔全球GDP的五分之一，反映美國制裁何其氾濫。
下篇，我會討論美國濫用制裁的後果。
The Consequences of Sanctions Abuse (Part 1)
Over the past 20 years, the United States has widely utilized sanctions as a primary diplomatic tool and gradually perfected its "toolbox" of sanctions. Nowadays, the US has multiple laws empowering the President or Congress to impose sanctions on individuals, companies, corporations, and even foreign governments, extending its reach overseas to coerce or punish other countries. In recent years, the most notable sanction actions by the US government have been the series of sanctions imposed on Russia due to the Russo-Ukrainian War, as well as the sanctions imposed on Chinese companies under the pretext of "national security." In the past, the US primarily targeted countries widely recognized as "rogue states," such as Cuba, Myanmar, North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela. However, since China and Russia have also faced US sanctions, the standards for US sanctions have become increasingly indiscriminate.
According to an expert report titled "America's Love of Sanctions Will Be Its Downfall" published by Foreign Policy on July 24, the US sanctions against other countries can be classified into three categories: comprehensive sanctions, targeted sanctions, and export controls. According to the database of Columbia University, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, and Venezuela are currently facing comprehensive sanctions from the US, and the vast majority of commercial and financial institutions are prohibited from engaging in transactions with these six countries. Seventeen countries, including Afghanistan, Iraq, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Yemen, are subject to targeted sanctions from the US, with certain businesses and financial institutions unable to engage in transactions with companies, individuals, or governments from these countries. According to the database of Princeton University, seven countries, including China, Eritrea, and Sri Lanka, are subject to US export controls primarily targeting high-tech products. In addition, the US has also imposed sanctions on multiple companies and individuals, including Hong Kong and central officials.
According to a report by the US Treasury Department in 2021, the US government at that time had sanctioned over 9,000 individuals, companies, and economic sectors, with 765 of them added by the newly inaugurated President Biden. According to statistics from Foreign Policy, the countries sanctioned by the US collectively account for one-fifth of the global GDP, reflecting the rampant nature of US sanctions.
In the next part, I will discuss the consequences of the US's abuse of sanctions.
今年6 月29 日，美國最高法院作出了一項歷史裁決，禁止全國大學在招生過程考慮申請人的種族因素。一直以來，美國大學為了消除種族歧視，收生時會招收一定數量的少數族裔學生，政策屬「平權行動」（affirmative action），一直有爭議。這次法庭裁定的結果與兩黨派意見一致，6 名保守派大法官贊成該裁定，3 名自由派大法官反對。
雖然美國憲法早於1865 年已廢除了奴隸制度，但是美國社會一直存在嚴重的種族歧視問題。非裔美國人受到不平等對待，即使資質比身邊的白人優秀，也不一定能獲得同等的機會，向上流動受到限制。平權行動的初衷是提高非裔美國人及其他少數族裔群體進入精英院校的概率，從而讓各族群享有平等權利。
支持平權行動的人認為，該政策減低大學在收生過程中歧視少數族裔，保障院校的多元化構成，有各個階級及種族的代表。由民主黨總統任命的拉丁裔大法官Sonia Sotomayor 認為，今次的裁決「推翻了幾十年的規則和重大進展」。她指：「在一個按種族分配機會的社會中，平等不可能通過種族盲目來實現。」（In a society where opportunity is dispensed along racial lines, equality cannot be attained through race blindness.）推翻了平權行動會讓少數族裔在向上流動的過程遇上更多的障礙。
反之，贊成該裁決的保守派人士認為，因為大學招生數額有限，平權行動使非裔美國人及西班牙裔人在申請大學時擁有不成正比的優勢，其他少數族裔人士卻因此落於下風。這次案件便是由一群亞裔美國學生發起，他們聲稱哈佛大學的招生政策歧視亞裔人士，在錄取學生時傾向於擁有相同資歷的非裔、拉美裔美國人。
美國大學的招生方法多年來均受到社會各階層關注，因為大多數人普遍認為被精英學院錄取便是踏上成功之路的第一步。下篇，我會討論家庭背景如何影響被精英大學錄取的機會。
On June 29th of this year, the US Supreme Court made a historic ruling that prohibits colleges nationwide from considering applicants' race in the admission process. Over the years, US universities have implemented affirmative action policies, which aim to eliminate racial discrimination by admitting a certain number of minority students. This policy has always been controversial. The court's decision this time was politically aligned, with six conservative justices in favor of the ruling and three liberal justices opposing it.
Although the US Constitution abolished slavery as early as 1865, racial discrimination has remained a serious issue in American society. African Americans face unequal treatment and may not have equal opportunities for upward mobility, even if they possess superior qualifications compared to their white counterparts. The original intention of affirmative action was to increase the chances of African Americans and other minority groups entering elite institutions, thereby ensuring equal rights for all ethnic groups.
Supporters of affirmative action believe that this policy reduces discrimination against minority groups in the college admissions process and ensures diverse representation of various classes and races within universities. Latina Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, appointed by a Democratic president, believes that this ruling "upends decades of precedents and significant progress." She states, "In a society where opportunity is dispensed along racial lines, equality cannot be attained through race blindness." Overturning affirmative action would create more barriers for minority groups in their upward mobility.
On the other hand, proponents of the ruling argue that due to limited spots in university admissions, affirmative action gives African Americans and Hispanic Americans an disproportionate advantage in college applications, while other minority groups are disadvantaged as a result. The case itself was brought forth by a group of Asian American students who claimed that Harvard University's admissions policies discriminated against Asian applicants by favoring African American and Latino students with similar qualifications.
US college admissions methods have been a subject of concern across different sectors of society for many years, as most people generally perceive being admitted to elite institutions as the first step toward success. In the next part, I will discuss how family background influences opportunities for admission to elite universities.