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賀錦麗慘敗有因 / Kamala harris's Crushing Defeat
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美國總統大選結果塵埃落定。選舉前,不少民調認為特朗普與賀錦麗在支持度上「叮噹馬頭」,是次選舉的競爭將會異常激烈。更有人大膽預測,雙方可能因為互相指控對手選舉欺詐所引發的法律糾紛,導致選舉結果遲遲無法出爐。然而,大選最後卻以特朗普橫掃7 個搖擺州,取得312 張選舉人票,輕鬆大勝賀錦麗告終。此外,共和黨還贏得參議院的多數席位(53 對46);眾議院方面,截至11 月11 日共和黨已奪得435 席中的214 席,預料可取得眾議院控制權。美國是一個三權分立的國家:立法權力歸於國會、行政權力歸於美國總統,而美國最高法院擁有終極司法權。特朗普勝選並幫助共和黨取得兩院控制權,加上在上個任期中任命了三位保守派的最高法院大法官,使特朗普能罕有地控制「三權」,而致「三權分立」的制衡機制在未來四年失效。
據各大美媒報道,民主黨大選慘敗後,黨內各方迅速互相指摘。美國眾議院前議長佩洛西在11 月8 日的一個播客節目分析,民主黨敗選的主因在於總統拜登退選太晚,導致民主黨來不及舉行初選,以致缺乏競爭,難以選出比賀錦麗優秀的候選人。選戰的過程突顯賀錦麗是一個弱勢的候選人,演辭及辯論都經過高度排練,她在電視辯論的表現只不過是中規中矩,反映她未曾經歷真正考驗。此外,賀錦麗的政綱有着濃重的拜登影子,缺乏個人特色及魅力。比方說,賀錦麗強調婦女墮胎權,但與奧巴馬夫人米歇爾(Michelle Obama)在女權主義上的演說相比,她的演說缺乏感染力,未能如預期般贏得女性選民的廣泛支持。她的競選拍檔副總統候選人沃爾茲(Tim Walz)在面對特朗普副手萬斯(J.D. Vance)時,對於萬斯提出的許多批評和攻擊顯得缺乏準備,力有不逮。
除候選人個人的原因外,美國當前的政治經濟環境以及民主黨的選舉策略失當,亦使賀錦麗的選戰慘敗,嚴重影響民主黨未來發展。下期拆解民主黨敗選的其他原因。
Kamala harris's Crushing Defeat
The dust has settled on the results of the U.S. presidential election. Before the election, many polls indicated that Trump and Kamala harris were neck and neck in terms of support, suggesting that the competition in this election would be exceptionally fierce. Some even boldly predicted that legal disputes stemming from mutual accusations of electoral fraud could delay the election results. However, the election concluded with Trump sweeping 7 swing states, securing 312 electoral votes and easily defeating Kamala harris. Additionally, the Republican Party also won the majority of seats in the Senate (53 to 46). As of November 11th, the Republican Party has secured 214 out of 435 seats in the House of Representatives, expected to gain control of the House.
The United States is a country with a separation of powers: legislative power belongs to Congress, executive power to the President, and the Supreme Court holds ultimate judicial power. Trump's victory and the Republican Party's control of both chambers, coupled with his appointment of three conservative Supreme Court justices in the previous term, have allowed Trump to unusually control all three branches of government, rendering the system of "checks and balances" ineffective for the next four years.
According to reports from major U.S. media outlets, following the Democratic Party's disastrous defeat, various factions within the party quickly began blaming each other. Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, in a podcast on November 8th, analyzed that the main reason for the Democratic Party's defeat was Biden's late withdrawal from the race, leading to a lack of competition as the Democrats did not have enough time for primaries to select a more outstanding candidate than Kamala harris. The campaign process highlighted Kamala harris's weaknesses as a candidate; her speeches and debates were highly rehearsed, and her performance in televised debates was only average, reflecting her lack of real testing. Furthermore, Kamala harris's policy platform bore a strong resemblance to Biden's, lacking personal characteristics and charm. For example, while Kamala harris emphasized women's abortion rights, her speeches lacked the inspirational power compared to Michelle Obama's feminist speeches, failing to garner widespread support from female voters as expected. Her running mate, Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz, appeared unprepared in facing many criticisms and attacks from Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance.
In addition to personal reasons for the candidates, the current political and economic environment in the U.S. and the Democratic Party's flawed election strategies also contributed to Kamala harris's crushing defeat, severely impacting the future development of the Democratic Party. Stay tuned for further analysis on other reasons for the Democratic Party's defeat in the next installment.
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