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Hong Kong must turn Greater Bay Area integration challenges into opportunities / 香港必須將粵港澳大灣區一體化的挑戰轉化為機遇
文章
2024 年 4 月 21 日
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The tireless efforts the government is making to reboot Hong Kong’s economy will be futile if the city’s leaders fail to grasp the challenge of integration within the Greater Bay Area and come up with strategies to turn the challenges into opportunities.
A framework agreement for deepening cooperation between Guangdong province, Hong Kong and Macau was signed on July 1, 2017. Almost seven years on, development in the bay area plan is bringing about profound changes to Hongkongers’ lifestyle and the economy.
Soon after the reopening of mainland China early last year, Hongkongers discovered that cities in the Greater Bay Area have made giant strides in urban planning and the service economy. As a result, they have been flocking to the bay area to spend their consumption dollars.
Between March 28 and April 8, which includes the extended Easter weekend and Ching Ming Festival, a staggering 3.6 million Hong Kong residents went north via land control points, compared to about 860,000 mainland residents who visited Hong Kong.
Other cities in the Greater Bay Area have become Hongkongers’ go-to playground in the same way that mainland residents poured into Hong Kong after the Individual Visit Scheme was launched 21 years ago.
The economic impact of this reversed travel pattern being felt across the Greater Bay Area. Last year, Shenzhen authorities announced that “social consumption and retail spending” rose by 7.8 per cent while its gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6 per cent, exceeding Hong Kong’s and other first-tier cities on the mainland.
In comparison, tourist arrivals from the mainland that have failed to reach pre-pandemic levels, plus weaker spending, as well as the “leakage” of our consumption dollars to the mainland, means our economic recovery crawled to an anaemic 3.2 per cent last year, from a low base in 2022.
In comparison, tourist arrivals from the mainland that have failed to reach pre-pandemic levels, plus weaker spending, as well as the “leakage” of our consumption dollars to the mainland, means our economic recovery crawled to an anaemic 3.2 per cent last year, from a low base in 2022.
The northbound trend is set to increase as more convenient transport links with the mainland develop as part of the Northern Metropolis project, an ambitious plan to develop Hong Kong’s northern districts into a technology hub that will accommodate 2.5 million people. As that happens, more Hongkongers may well choose to live on the mainland, and commute daily to work in Hong Kong, or simply work in other mainland cities.
A fundamental problem with Greater Bay Area development is that it is far from being a single market, even though integration is one of the objectives of the 2017 framework agreement.
Under the “one country, two systems” arrangement, there is no free movement of people, goods, services and data between the mainland and Hong Kong. As separate custom and immigration areas, both sides have instituted controls that make market integration a slow and difficult process.
In the short term, Hong Kong needs to overcome the asymmetry of movement and spending by urging the central authorities to allow residents of more remote mainland cities to visit, as well as approve multiple-visit permits and increase the duty-free allowance for mainland residents returning from Hong Kong.
In the long term, the government must develop a strategy for mainland cities and Hong Kong to complement each other. Officials must work out how to make use of the abundant resources mainland cities have to offer to remedy our shortages.
As more Hongkongers choose to live in nearby mainland cities, why can’t we build our residential care homes in those cities? Cross-border transport is now far more convenient. After all, our residential care homes depend heavily on the import of workers from Guangdong and Guangxi.
Instead of spending billions to reclaim a small area of land, why don’t we buy good-quality housing that’s readily available in nearby mainland cities, to provide more options for those who live in the northern districts? Now is a good time to buy on the cheap.
We should also take more vigorous measures to phase out hindrances for mainland professionals to work in Hong Kong, bring in more talent and import more mainland labour.
Only by leveraging the mainland’s resources, and combining our strengths with theirs, can we turn the process of Greater Bay Area integration into a win-win formula. The government ought to remould Hong Kong into a metropolis like London or New York, with some of its population dispersing into nearby suburbs.
The Hong Kong diaspora on the mainland will make Hong Kong more influential while relieving the pressure of the cost of living in this city. The government needs to think outside the box and move fast.
如果特區政府未能抓住粵港澳大灣區一體化的機遇制定相關策略，即使政府不斷為重振香港經濟而作出努力，將會是徒勞的。
2017年7月1日，廣東省、香港和澳門簽署了深化合作框架協議。快將七年過去，粵港澳大灣區規劃帶來深遠影響，不僅改變了香港人的生活方式，也改變了經濟環境。
去年年初內地開關不久，香港人就發現粵港澳大灣區內城市，無論在城市規劃和服務業方面已迅速進展。結果，香港人踴往大灣區消費了。
今年3月28日至4月8日期間，包括復活節及清明節長假期周末，有多達360萬香港居民通過陸路口岸北上，來香港的內地居民約有86萬人。
這充分反映香港人越來越喜歡離港到鄰近城市消費購物，享受當地便利的生活設施。香港或已無法滿足消費需求，內地城市的競爭力正不斷增強，吸引香港市民。
特區政府和企業如果不想失去這批消費客源，就必須積極參與和引導粵港澳一體化，做好產業對接，協同發展香港與內地市場。
其他粵港澳大灣區城市已經成為香港人新的休閑場所，就像21年前開放個人遊後內地居民湧進香港一樣。
這種反向旅遊模式帶來的經濟影響正蔓延整個大灣區。去年，深圳官方表示“社會消費和零售開支”增長7.8%，GDP增長6%，超過了香港及其他一線內地城市。
相比之下，來港旅遊人數未能恢復疫情前水平，消費力也較弱，加上香港消費流向內地「漏走」，導致我們的經濟復蘇僅從2022年低位爬升到去年的3.2%。如果香港不想失去這批消費客，必須主動參與大灣區一體化，與內地城市合作開拓市場，推動相關產業發展。否則經濟難實現真正復蘇。
餐館與商店的關閉迫使政府發起「香港夜繽紛」活動來刺激本地消費。但這一下滑趨勢很可能會持續，除非香港餐飲與零售服務能達到粵港澳大灣區的質量標准。
如果將所有責任歸咎於我們的服務供應商，值得說的是宏觀經濟力量在這個下滑趨勢中也起到很大作用。香港幣與美元掛鉤，使香港物價對日本、韓國和內地旅客來說極為昂貴。
我們需要借此機會，檢討自身的服務水平與競爭力，並主動學習粵港澳區域內其他城市在人才培訓、科技應用等領域的優良經驗，跟上時代步伐。只有這樣，香港的旅遊業和經濟才有望持續健康發展。
鑒於港幣實力強勁，香港理應貶值。但薪資水平受勞工短缺影響較通貨膨脹更甚的「粘滯性」，使香港很難實現通縮。盡管商業房租有所下降，但香港高薪和房地產成本使其在價格上競爭力近乎無限。
隨著北部都會區計劃落實，香港北區極其宜居的交通網絡將日益完善，這一規劃將該地區打造成可容納250萬人的科技中心。這使更多香港人可能選擇定居內地，每日通勤至港工作，或直接在內地其他城市工作。北上的趨勢將進一步增強。
粵港澳大灣區發展的一個核心問題是，一體化是2017框架協議的目標之一，但區域內市場分化仍很明顯，遠未真正形成單一市場。
根據「一國兩制」，內地與香港在人員、貨物、服務和數據並沒有自由流動。作為單獨的海關和出入境管理區，雙方設立了管理，使市場一體化變成緩慢艱難的過程。
短期來看，香港需要解決來往和消費不對等問題。這可以建議中央允許更多內地較遙遠城市的居民來港，批出更多「一簽多行」通行證，提高港人赴內消費免稅額度。
長遠來看，政府必須制定內地城市與香港互補發展的戰略，官員應研究如何充分利用內地城市豐富資源彌補香港短板。只有內地與香港在人員、貨物與資金流通等各個層面進行全面聯通，粵港澳大灣區市場一體化才能真正實現，使香港經濟獲得更大活力。
隨著香港人選擇定居鄰近內地城市人數增多，我們為什麼不可以在那些城市建設養老院？跨境交通比以往方便得多，而養老院目前已高度依賴從廣東和廣西輸入護理員。
相比花費數千億進行小範圍的填海造地，不如利用鄰近內地城市豐富的高質量房產資源，提供更多選擇給居住在北區的人，現在正是內地房價低廉的好機會。如此一來不僅可以最大限度優化資源配置，還可以緊密結合大灣區內人才與服務資源。離港的年長香港人也可以享受更優質的安老環境，政府值得重視這個可行性高的優化方案。
我們也應采取更積極的措施，逐步消除內地專業人士來港工作的障礙，吸引更多人才，增加從內地輸入勞工。
唯有利用內地資源，結合我們各自的優勢，才能將粵港澳大灣區一體化進程變成雙贏的局面。政府應該把香港打造成類似倫敦或紐約這樣的都會，部分人口分布在周邊郊區。內地的香港人口會使香港的影響力更大，同時緩解生活成本在本地的壓力，政府需要脫離舊式思維，迅速行動。
如果及早把握大灣區機遇，香港定能在新的發展格局中繼續發揮重要作用。
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自中美兩國於1979年建立外交關係，兩國之間的學術交流合作愈趨頻繁。過往10年，前往美國就學的中國留學生數目由2011/12學年約20萬急升至2019/20學年約37萬；而前往中國留學的美國學生數目高峰時亦有約1.5萬。
但隨着在特朗普2016年上台，美國的對華立場出現重大改變，中美關係轉趨緊張。特朗普在任期間，以保護美國學界的研究成果為由，推出一系列政策窒礙中美學界的正常交流，包括限制「與軍方有聯繫」的研究生及訪問學者入境；要求辦學機構公開與孔子學院或孔子課堂的任何合約、合作關係或資金往來。單是2020年的幾個月內，美方就撤銷了約1000個中國公民的簽證。
特朗普下台後，拜登政府延續強硬的對華政策，繼續維持對中國留學生及訪問學者的入境限制。《華盛頓郵報》上月一篇報道指出，近年有不少中國留學生在入境美國時遇到非常嚴厲的審查。有不少學生指出，美方管制人員輕則會盤問他們、搜查他們的隨身物品，重則會拘留他們，甚至把他們即時驅逐出境。美國學術界受政治壓力驅使，主動減少與中國學界的聯繫。多所美國大學主動終止在內地的課程計劃，或將計劃改在台灣舉辦，所有受當地政府資助的孔子學院亦縮減了中國語文課程的規模。
美方各種不友善舉措大大打擊中國留學生前往深造的意欲。美國國務院轄下教育及文化事務局（Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs）的數據顯示，中國留學生的數目已由2019/20學年高峰的372,532跌至2022/23學年的289,526；而2021/22學年前往中國的美國留學生更只剩下211人！
長遠而言，中美學術交流的斷絕會進一步窒礙兩國的正常交流，對雙方都是弊多於利。下期將展開詳述。
Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979, academic exchanges and cooperation between the two countries have become increasingly frequent. In the past decade, the number of Chinese students studying in the United States increased sharply from about 200,000 in the 2011/12 academic year to about 370,000 in the 2019/20 academic year; while the peak number of American students studying in China was also around 15,000.
However, with the significant change in the US's policy toward China since Trump took office in 2016, relations between China and the US have become more strained. During Trump's term, under the pretext of protecting US academic achievements, a series of policies were introduced to hamper normal exchanges between Chinese and American academia, including restrictions on graduate students and visiting scholars related to the military from entering the country; requiring educational institutions to publicly disclose any contracts, cooperative relationships or financial dealings with Confucius Institutes or Confucius Classrooms. Just in 2020, the US revoked visas of about 1,000 Chinese citizens.
After Trump left office, the Biden administration continued the hardline policy toward China and maintained restrictions on Chinese international students and visiting scholars entering the country. A Washington Post report last month pointed out that in recent years, many Chinese students have encountered very strict inspections when entering the US. Many students said US immigration officials would interrogate them, search their personal belongings, detain them, or even deport them immediately. Under political pressure, the US academic circle proactively reduced contacts with Chinese academia. Many US universities unilaterally terminated courses in China or moved programs to Taiwan. All Confucius Institutes subsidized by the local government also downsized Chinese language courses.
The unfriendly moves by the US greatly dampened Chinese students' willingness to pursue advanced studies abroad. Data from the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs under the US State Department shows that the number of Chinese students has dropped from a peak of 372,532 in the 2019/20 academic year to 289,526 in the 2022/23 academic year; while in the 2021/22 academic year, there were only 211 American students studying in China!
In the long run, the severing of academic exchanges between China and the US will further hinder normal communication between the two countries, which is detrimental to both sides. More details will be discussed in the next issue.
The tireless efforts the government is making to reboot Hong Kong’s economy will be futile if the city’s leaders fail to grasp the challenge of integration within the Greater Bay Area and come up with strategies to turn the challenges into opportunities.
A framework agreement for deepening cooperation between Guangdong province, Hong Kong and Macau was signed on July 1, 2017. Almost seven years on, development in the bay area plan is bringing about profound changes to Hongkongers’ lifestyle and the economy.
Soon after the reopening of mainland China early last year, Hongkongers discovered that cities in the Greater Bay Area have made giant strides in urban planning and the service economy. As a result, they have been flocking to the bay area to spend their consumption dollars.
Between March 28 and April 8, which includes the extended Easter weekend and Ching Ming Festival, a staggering 3.6 million Hong Kong residents went north via land control points, compared to about 860,000 mainland residents who visited Hong Kong.
Other cities in the Greater Bay Area have become Hongkongers’ go-to playground in the same way that mainland residents poured into Hong Kong after the Individual Visit Scheme was launched 21 years ago.
The economic impact of this reversed travel pattern being felt across the Greater Bay Area. Last year, Shenzhen authorities announced that “social consumption and retail spending” rose by 7.8 per cent while its gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6 per cent, exceeding Hong Kong’s and other first-tier cities on the mainland.
In comparison, tourist arrivals from the mainland that have failed to reach pre-pandemic levels, plus weaker spending, as well as the “leakage” of our consumption dollars to the mainland, means our economic recovery crawled to an anaemic 3.2 per cent last year, from a low base in 2022.
In comparison, tourist arrivals from the mainland that have failed to reach pre-pandemic levels, plus weaker spending, as well as the “leakage” of our consumption dollars to the mainland, means our economic recovery crawled to an anaemic 3.2 per cent last year, from a low base in 2022.
The northbound trend is set to increase as more convenient transport links with the mainland develop as part of the Northern Metropolis project, an ambitious plan to develop Hong Kong’s northern districts into a technology hub that will accommodate 2.5 million people. As that happens, more Hongkongers may well choose to live on the mainland, and commute daily to work in Hong Kong, or simply work in other mainland cities.
A fundamental problem with Greater Bay Area development is that it is far from being a single market, even though integration is one of the objectives of the 2017 framework agreement.
Under the “one country, two systems” arrangement, there is no free movement of people, goods, services and data between the mainland and Hong Kong. As separate custom and immigration areas, both sides have instituted controls that make market integration a slow and difficult process.
In the short term, Hong Kong needs to overcome the asymmetry of movement and spending by urging the central authorities to allow residents of more remote mainland cities to visit, as well as approve multiple-visit permits and increase the duty-free allowance for mainland residents returning from Hong Kong.
In the long term, the government must develop a strategy for mainland cities and Hong Kong to complement each other. Officials must work out how to make use of the abundant resources mainland cities have to offer to remedy our shortages.
As more Hongkongers choose to live in nearby mainland cities, why can’t we build our residential care homes in those cities? Cross-border transport is now far more convenient. After all, our residential care homes depend heavily on the import of workers from Guangdong and Guangxi.
Instead of spending billions to reclaim a small area of land, why don’t we buy good-quality housing that’s readily available in nearby mainland cities, to provide more options for those who live in the northern districts? Now is a good time to buy on the cheap.
We should also take more vigorous measures to phase out hindrances for mainland professionals to work in Hong Kong, bring in more talent and import more mainland labour.
Only by leveraging the mainland’s resources, and combining our strengths with theirs, can we turn the process of Greater Bay Area integration into a win-win formula. The government ought to remould Hong Kong into a metropolis like London or New York, with some of its population dispersing into nearby suburbs.
The Hong Kong diaspora on the mainland will make Hong Kong more influential while relieving the pressure of the cost of living in this city. The government needs to think outside the box and move fast.
如果特區政府未能抓住粵港澳大灣區一體化的機遇制定相關策略，即使政府不斷為重振香港經濟而作出努力，將會是徒勞的。
2017年7月1日，廣東省、香港和澳門簽署了深化合作框架協議。快將七年過去，粵港澳大灣區規劃帶來深遠影響，不僅改變了香港人的生活方式，也改變了經濟環境。
去年年初內地開關不久，香港人就發現粵港澳大灣區內城市，無論在城市規劃和服務業方面已迅速進展。結果，香港人踴往大灣區消費了。
今年3月28日至4月8日期間，包括復活節及清明節長假期周末，有多達360萬香港居民通過陸路口岸北上，來香港的內地居民約有86萬人。
這充分反映香港人越來越喜歡離港到鄰近城市消費購物，享受當地便利的生活設施。香港或已無法滿足消費需求，內地城市的競爭力正不斷增強，吸引香港市民。
特區政府和企業如果不想失去這批消費客源，就必須積極參與和引導粵港澳一體化，做好產業對接，協同發展香港與內地市場。
其他粵港澳大灣區城市已經成為香港人新的休閑場所，就像21年前開放個人遊後內地居民湧進香港一樣。
這種反向旅遊模式帶來的經濟影響正蔓延整個大灣區。去年，深圳官方表示“社會消費和零售開支”增長7.8%，GDP增長6%，超過了香港及其他一線內地城市。
相比之下，來港旅遊人數未能恢復疫情前水平，消費力也較弱，加上香港消費流向內地「漏走」，導致我們的經濟復蘇僅從2022年低位爬升到去年的3.2%。如果香港不想失去這批消費客，必須主動參與大灣區一體化，與內地城市合作開拓市場，推動相關產業發展。否則經濟難實現真正復蘇。
餐館與商店的關閉迫使政府發起「香港夜繽紛」活動來刺激本地消費。但這一下滑趨勢很可能會持續，除非香港餐飲與零售服務能達到粵港澳大灣區的質量標准。
如果將所有責任歸咎於我們的服務供應商，值得說的是宏觀經濟力量在這個下滑趨勢中也起到很大作用。香港幣與美元掛鉤，使香港物價對日本、韓國和內地旅客來說極為昂貴。
我們需要借此機會，檢討自身的服務水平與競爭力，並主動學習粵港澳區域內其他城市在人才培訓、科技應用等領域的優良經驗，跟上時代步伐。只有這樣，香港的旅遊業和經濟才有望持續健康發展。
鑒於港幣實力強勁，香港理應貶值。但薪資水平受勞工短缺影響較通貨膨脹更甚的「粘滯性」，使香港很難實現通縮。盡管商業房租有所下降，但香港高薪和房地產成本使其在價格上競爭力近乎無限。
隨著北部都會區計劃落實，香港北區極其宜居的交通網絡將日益完善，這一規劃將該地區打造成可容納250萬人的科技中心。這使更多香港人可能選擇定居內地，每日通勤至港工作，或直接在內地其他城市工作。北上的趨勢將進一步增強。
粵港澳大灣區發展的一個核心問題是，一體化是2017框架協議的目標之一，但區域內市場分化仍很明顯，遠未真正形成單一市場。
根據「一國兩制」，內地與香港在人員、貨物、服務和數據並沒有自由流動。作為單獨的海關和出入境管理區，雙方設立了管理，使市場一體化變成緩慢艱難的過程。
短期來看，香港需要解決來往和消費不對等問題。這可以建議中央允許更多內地較遙遠城市的居民來港，批出更多「一簽多行」通行證，提高港人赴內消費免稅額度。
長遠來看，政府必須制定內地城市與香港互補發展的戰略，官員應研究如何充分利用內地城市豐富資源彌補香港短板。只有內地與香港在人員、貨物與資金流通等各個層面進行全面聯通，粵港澳大灣區市場一體化才能真正實現，使香港經濟獲得更大活力。
隨著香港人選擇定居鄰近內地城市人數增多，我們為什麼不可以在那些城市建設養老院？跨境交通比以往方便得多，而養老院目前已高度依賴從廣東和廣西輸入護理員。
相比花費數千億進行小範圍的填海造地，不如利用鄰近內地城市豐富的高質量房產資源，提供更多選擇給居住在北區的人，現在正是內地房價低廉的好機會。如此一來不僅可以最大限度優化資源配置，還可以緊密結合大灣區內人才與服務資源。離港的年長香港人也可以享受更優質的安老環境，政府值得重視這個可行性高的優化方案。
我們也應采取更積極的措施，逐步消除內地專業人士來港工作的障礙，吸引更多人才，增加從內地輸入勞工。
唯有利用內地資源，結合我們各自的優勢，才能將粵港澳大灣區一體化進程變成雙贏的局面。政府應該把香港打造成類似倫敦或紐約這樣的都會，部分人口分布在周邊郊區。內地的香港人口會使香港的影響力更大，同時緩解生活成本在本地的壓力，政府需要脫離舊式思維，迅速行動。
如果及早把握大灣區機遇，香港定能在新的發展格局中繼續發揮重要作用。
自《維護國家安全條例》於3月19日獲立法會全票通過後，社會上不少人士都關注美國政府會否採取大規模制裁措施，制裁有關官員及議員。
就目前情况而言，美國當局的反應遠較想像中克制。除國務卿布林肯於3月22日發表聲明，對香港的高度自治、民主體制和自由權利表示關注外，華府僅宣布對數名港府官員實施簽證限制，措施力度遠輕於美國2020年就《香港國安法》實施後的制裁。
全國人大常委會2020年6月30日通過《香港國安法》後，美國迅速於7月14日通過《香港自治法》授權美國聯邦政府廣泛制裁實施《香港國安法》的中華人民共和國與香港特別行政區政府官員。時任總統特朗普即時簽署行政命令，引述包括《香港人權與民主法》及《香港自治法》在內的多項法例，宣布制裁多名中央及港府官員。
我認為，華府是次應對如此克制的主要原因是不希望再次損害暫趨穩定的中美關係。去年11月，國家主席習近平與拜登在三藩市會面時達成多項共識，包括兩軍高層恢復恆常溝通及合作加強打擊毒品販運。加上美國近日將有多名內閣級官員訪華，相信華府當局並不樂見兩國關係在此刻因香港問題再生枝節。《維護國家安全條例》是經香港本地自行立法，符合普通法程序，加上內容參考了不少西方國家的國安法例，有理有節，並不存在所謂對公民社會、媒體及異見聲音的壓抑。
最重要的是，與2019年黑暴動亂時相比，香港在美國媒體及政界的關注度已下降。由於黑暴打破了外界對香港社會和平有序的印象，因此受到國際媒體的廣泛關注及報道。受此影響，當時有不少美國國會議員都爭相走訪香港，與暴徒合照，表示支持香港的「民主運動」。但現在西方媒體對香港的報道篇幅已不及從前，《維護國家安全條例》的通過亦未在美國國內引起太大迴響。
除此以外，美國國會現時內部一片混亂，我相信國會議員此刻尚未能分神對香港採取制裁行動。
Since the passage of the National Security Law for Hong Kong by the Legislative Council with unanimous consent on March 19, many in society have been concerned about whether the US government will impose large-scale sanctions or penalties against relevant officials and legislators.
So far, the US response has been much more restrained than imagined. In addition to Secretary of State Blinken's statement on March 22 expressing concerns about Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy, democratic system and freedoms, Washington only announced visa restrictions on a few Hong Kong government officials, with measures far lighter than US sanctions after implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law in 2020.
After the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress passed the Hong Kong National Security Law on June 30, 2020, the US swiftly passed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act on July 14, authorizing wide-ranging sanctions by the US federal government against officials of the People's Republic of China and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government who implemented the Hong Kong National Security Law. Then-President Trump immediately signed an executive order citing multiple laws including the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act and the Hong Kong Autonomy Act to announce sanctions against several central and Hong Kong government officials.
I believe the key reason for Washington's restraint this time is not wanting to further damage Sino-US relations which have regained some stability. In November last year, President Xi Jinping and Biden reached multiple consensuses in San Francisco, including resumption of regular communication and cooperation between military leaders as well as strengthening joint efforts against drug trafficking. Coupled with upcoming visits to China by several senior US Cabinet officials, it's believed Washington does not welcome further complications in bilateral relations over the Hong Kong issue at this time. The National Security Law for Hong Kong was legislated locally through Hong Kong's own processes according to common law procedures, drawing on many Western countries' national security laws, with sound logic and reason and devoid of so-called suppression of civil society, media and dissenting voices.
Most importantly, Hong Kong now attracts less attention from the US media and political circles compared to the black riots in 2019. The black riots shattered the international impression of Hong Kong as a society of peace and order, receiving widespread international media coverage and reports. Influenced by this, many US Congress members at the time competed to visit Hong Kong and pose for photos with rioters expressing support for Hong Kong's "democratic movement." But now Western media coverage of Hong Kong is less than before, and the passage of the National Security Law for Hong Kong did not stir up major reverberations domestically in the US.
Additionally, the US Congress is currently in disarray, and I believe Congress members do not have the bandwidth at this time to take sanctions action against Hong Kong.
近年來，隨着內地資訊科技行業發展步伐加快，美國為首的西方國家開始臆想中國會利用網絡平台進行情報收集活動。由字節跳動公司創辦並營運的 TikTok 就被美國政府指控，向中國政府提供用戶的個人信息，危害美國的國家安全。
TikTok在美國深受年輕一代的歡迎。在2017 年5 月進入海外市場後，僅以1年5 個月的時間就成為美國月度下載量及安裝量最高的手機應用程式。然而，公司業務擴張的驚人速度引來了美國政府的猜忌。
2019 年末，美國海軍以TikTok 應用構成網路安全威脅為由，禁止在政府的行動裝置上使用TikTok；美國陸軍則在2020 年初加入抵制TikTok 的行列。當時，特朗普政府曾嘗試透過行政命令，全面封殺TikTok，奈何有關命令最終被法院推翻。
近日，美國眾議院通過一項法案要求字節跳動公司在6 個月內剝離旗下短片分享平台TikTok，否則將在全國範圍內禁用TikTok。總統拜登已表明，假若法案獲兩院通過，他會簽署並頒布落實。
匪夷所思的是，此前一直支持封殺 TikTok 的特朗普卻改變立場，反對禁用TikTok。據美國媒體報道，特朗普「轉軚」的原因有二。第一，他認為假若法案通過，facebook 可能會借機吞併TikTok，從中獲利。特朗普堅信 facebook 母公司Meta 的行政總裁朱克伯格在2020 年大選中協助拜登贏得選舉，因此對其懷有私怨，不希望他因此獲益。
但更重要的原因是，共和黨金主傑夫．亞斯（Jeff Yass）旗下一間公司現時擁有字節跳動15% 股份，市場估值約400 億美元。由於亞斯在本屆大選中向特朗普提供了巨額的財政援助，促使特朗普的立場出現重大轉變。
In recent years, as China's information technology industry development pace accelerates, Western countries led by the United States began conjecturing that China would use online platforms for intelligence collection activities. TikTok, created and operated by ByteDance, has been accused by the US government of providing users' personal information to the Chinese government, posing a threat to US national security.
TikTok is hugely popular among young people in the US. After entering overseas markets in May 2017, it became the mobile app with the highest monthly downloads and installations in the US in just one year and five months. However, the company's astonishing business expansion speed aroused suspicion from the US government.
In late 2019, the US Navy banned the use of TikTok on government mobile devices, citing security risks posed by the app. The US Army also joined the boycott of TikTok in early 2020. At the time, the Trump administration attempted to completely ban TikTok through executive orders, but the relevant orders were ultimately overturned by the courts.
Recently, the US House of Representatives passed a bill requiring ByteDance to divest its short video sharing platform TikTok within six months, or TikTok will be banned nationwide in the US. President Biden has indicated that he will sign and enforce it if the bill passes both chambers.
Strangely, Trump, who had long supported banning TikTok, changed his stance to oppose banning it. According to US media reports, Trump "changed course" for two reasons. First, he believes if the bill passes, Facebook may take advantage to acquire TikTok and profit from it. Trump firmly believes Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg assisted Biden in winning the 2020 election, so he harbors personal resentment and does not want him to benefit from this.
But the more important reason is that a company owned by Republican megadonor Jeff Yass currently holds 15% of ByteDance shares worth an estimated $40 billion in market value. Given Yass' huge financial support for Trump in this election, it prompted a major shift in Trump's position.
競選資金在選舉中的作用向來舉足輕重，在美國總統大選更甚。美國總統大選的總開支近年一路飈升，由1996 年約66 億美元升至2020 年約140 億美元。而候選人的籌款能力愈強，贏面就愈高。
2020 年上屆大選，拜登破紀錄籌得超過10 億美元，而特朗普則籌得約7.7 億美元。由於特朗普在選舉衝刺階段時出現資金短缺，不得不減少在多個關鍵州份的廣告投放量，導致特朗普在上屆大選中丟掉了3 個關鍵州份，間接令他輸掉選舉。
來到今屆選舉，由於特朗普有多宗官非纏身，需要動用競選資金支付相關法律費用，導致競選團隊一度出現財政危機。早前，特朗普在紐約州的一宗民事訴訟中敗訴並被判罰款。雖然他有意提出上訴，但須先繳付高達1.75 億美元的保證金方可繼續進行訴訟。外界一度關注他有沒有足夠資金去支付天價保證金，更有傳他可能會因為無法支付保證金而被法庭拍賣旗下的名貴物業。
近日，特朗普得到一名金主慷慨解囊，在限期前支付保證金，得以繼續上訴。根據美國當地傳媒報道，該名金主是靠銷售次級汽車貸款服務（Subprime auto loan）起家的加州富豪漢基（Don Hankey）。漢基是特朗普及共和黨的忠實支持者，過往一直有向共和黨捐款。單是2016 年8 月，他就分別捐款予共和黨全國委員會（Republican National Committee） 及懷俄明州共和黨競選委員會（Republican Party of Wyoming PAC）。
雖然今次特朗普覓得金主贊助，但在籌集競選資金方面仍然落後拜登。民主黨現時已籌得超過1 億9000 萬美元，仍然領先特朗普團隊。因此，我認為特朗普團隊現時最迫切的任務是盡快確保競選資金來源，避免因「缺水」而失票。
Campaign funding has always played an important role in elections, even more so in the US presidential election. The total spending on US presidential elections has been soaring in recent years, from about $6.6 billion in 1996 to about $14 billion in 2020. And the stronger a candidate's fundraising ability, the higher the chances of winning.
In the last election in 2020, Biden broke records by raising over $1 billion, while Trump raised about $770 million. Due to a cash crunch during the final stage of the election, Trump had to reduce advertising spending in multiple key states, leading to his loss of three key states and indirectly losing the election.
In this year's election, Trump has been embroiled in multiple scandals and needs to use campaign funds to pay legal fees, resulting in a temporary financial crisis for his campaign team. Previously, Trump lost a civil lawsuit in New York and was ordered to pay fines. Although he intends to appeal, he needs to post a hefty bond of $175 million first before the lawsuit can continue. There were concerns about whether he had enough money to pay the exorbitant bond, and rumors that he may have his valuable properties auctioned off by the court if unable to pay.
Recently, Trump found a generous benefactor who paid the bond before the deadline, allowing him to continue appealing. According to local media reports, the benefactor is Don Hankey, a billionaire from California who made his fortune through subprime auto loans. Hankey is a loyal supporter of Trump and the Republican Party, having donated to them in the past. Just in August 2016, he separately donated to the Republican National Committee and the Republican Party of Wyoming PAC.
While Trump has found a sponsor this time, he is still lagging behind Biden in fundraising. The Democrats have already raised over $189 million, still leading Trump's team. Therefore, I believe the most urgent task for Trump's team now is to ensure sources of campaign funds as soon as possible to avoid losing votes due to "running out of water."
由於特朗普及拜登二人作為總統的表現未能讓選民滿意，呼籲票投第三方的呼聲在本屆總統選舉中尤為高漲。雖然多數獨立候選人在民調上的支持度都及不上特、拜二人，但外界普遍認為來自甘迺迪家族的小羅拔甘迺迪（Robert Kennedy Jr.）可能對選舉的最終結果產生重要影響。
甘迺迪家族在美國政壇名聲顯赫，多個家族成員都曾出任政府要職。小羅拔甘迺迪是已故總統甘迺迪的侄子，父親則是前司法部部長及前參議員，本應是競選總統的熱門人選。但民主黨希望將選票導向拜登，以抗衡特朗普，因此未有給予甘迺迪「祝福」。
但我認為，縱使甘迺迪出選挑戰拜登，亦未必會嚴重分割民主黨內的票源。皆因甘迺迪本人的政治主張十分激進，極左及極右的議題都有涉足，與民主黨中間偏左的立場相距甚遠，相信無法取得大部分民主黨人的支持。但甘迺迪的新競選搭檔或能協助爭取更多提名，提高他「入閘」的機會。
據美國政經網站Politico報道，甘迺迪早前宣布科技律師及企業家妮可沙娜罕（Nicole Shanahan）為他的競選搭檔。他稱讚對方為傑出的律師、科學家、技術專家及堅強的母親。
沙娜罕是中美混血兒及移民後代，亦是Google其中一名創辦人Sergey Brin的前妻。兩人於2022年離婚時，沙娜罕按照結婚時簽署的婚前協議，分得約10億美元財產。沙娜罕與甘迺迪同為律師，在環保政策及反疫苗陰謀論的立場相近，她亦主張利用創新科技去打擊政府機構的腐敗行為。
不難看出，甘迺迪和沙娜罕所代表的是民主黨內以「矽谷精英」為主的精英階層利益。雖然沙娜罕的雄厚財力或能協助甘迺迪取得更多提名，但相信無助他當選總統。不過，他們的部分激進主張或可吸引共和、民主兩黨的邊緣化選民支持，分割特、拜二人的票源。
What are Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s chances?
As the performances of both Trump and Biden as president have failed to satisfy voters, there are increasingly loud calls this election for voting third-party. While most independent candidates still lag Trump and Biden in polls, most observers believe Robert F. Kennedy Jr., from the famed Kennedy family, could significantly impact the final election result.
The Kennedy family has a prominent reputation in American politics, with many family members having held high government positions. RFK Jr. is the nephew of former president John F. Kennedy, and his father was a former Attorney General and senator, making him a natural candidate for president. However, the Democratic Party hoped to direct votes toward Biden to counter Trump, so did not give RFK Jr. their "blessing."
However, I believe even if RFK Jr. challenged Biden, it would unlikely severely split the Democratic vote base. This is because RFK Jr.'s own political stances are quite radical, touching on both far-left and far-right issues, far from the Democratic Party's center-left position, and he likely cannot gain support from most Democrats. But RFK Jr.'s new running mate could help attract more nominations and increase his chances of "making the cut."
According to a report by the American political and economic website Politico, RFK Jr. recently announced technology lawyer and entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate. He praised her as an outstanding lawyer, scientist, tech expert and strong mother.
Shanahan is of Chinese-American descent and an immigrant offspring. She is also the former wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin. When they divorced in 2022, Shanahan got around $1 billion in assets according to their prenuptial agreement. Shanahan and RFK Jr. share a similar stance as lawyers on environmental policy and anti-vaccine conspiracy theories. She also advocates using innovative technology to combat corruption in government agencies.
It's not difficult to see that RFK Jr. and Shanahan represent the interests of the elite class in the Democratic Party comprising mainly of "Silicon Valley elites." While Shanahan's formidable wealth could help RFK Jr. get more nominations, it's unlikely to help him win the presidency. However, some of their radical stances may attract support from marginalized voters of both Republican and Democratic parties, splitting votes from Trump and Biden.
新一屆美國總統選舉逐漸白熱化，當地出現了一系列前所未見的怪誕現象。
先是過往一直尋求兩黨合作的中間派政治組織「無標籤」（No Labels）宣布，希望甄選合適候選人出戰11 月的大選；本屬民主黨的政治世家甘迺迪家族的成員小羅拔甘迺迪（Robert Kennedy Jr.）罕有拒絕服從黨內初選結果，堅持以獨立候選人身分競選總統；最近更有一名德州男子將自己改名「任何人」（Literally Anybody Else）後在各州收集簽名提名，試圖以獨立候選人身分出選。
被問及出選原因時，三者不約而同表示不滿意特朗普及拜登兩人的表現，對共和、民主兩黨未能派出更好的候選人感到失望。其實第三黨／獨立候選人在總統選舉的勝算極微，但這次大選有這麼多獨立候選人出現，我認為反映美國民間普遍對兩黨壟斷政壇感到不滿。
除此以外，這次大選或將罕有地出現候選人競選資金短缺的情况。由於特朗普官司纏身，加上其他普通法司法管轄區的「敗訴者支付原則」（loser pays principle）並不適用於美國司法系統，有媒體透露特朗普需要挪用競選資金去支付一系列官司所衍生的法律費用。
為避免財務危機繼續擴大，特朗普奇招盡出。早前，他在紐約因民事欺詐案敗訴，被判罰款4.54 億美元。就此，特朗普立即上訴試圖推翻判決並向支持者請求現金援助，更將旗下社交媒體平台Truth Social 上市，意圖籌集更多資金。奈何運營不善，其Trump Media&Technology Group 掛牌上市不到一星期股價就下跌超過20%，令特朗普倒賠10 億美元。雖然他最後說服法庭將上訴保證金的金額降至1.75 億美元，但若特朗普最終敗訴，相信會對後續選情造成重大影響。
特朗普團隊現時的財政狀况捉襟見肘；相反，對手拜登團隊早前靠着兩位前總統背書，籌得超過2600萬競選資金。特朗普團隊的財政危機會否讓拜登有機可圖，後來居上，至今仍是未知之數。
特朗普和拜登二人在今年美國大選「重賽」已是板上釘釘的事。雖然有民調結果顯示，特朗普目前的民望領先拜登，但更多美國民眾認為兩人都不討喜。
美國民調網站538（Five Thirty Eight）所收集的資料顯示，特朗普現時的支持度介乎於43% 至53%；拜登的支持度則在38% 至47% 徘徊；特朗普的支持度最高只拋離拜登6 個百分點。這意味着特拜二人誰能勝選將再一次由寥寥數個搖擺州份（Swing States）的選舉結果決定。
熟悉美國選舉制度的讀者應該知道，不公正選區劃分（gerry mandering）是美國選舉制度中積壓已久的亂象之一。共和、民主兩黨都會在執政的州份重劃選區，以確保能在選舉中取得絕對優勢。久而久之，不公正選區劃分使得共和、民主兩黨得以將絕大部分州份打造成各自的票倉。
美國的總統選舉並非一人一票直選制度，而是先選出選舉人團（Electoral College），再由選舉人團代表本州人民投票選出總統的間接選舉制度。除了緬因和內布拉斯加兩個州外，其他州份都實行「贏家通吃制」（the winner-takes- all system），候選人只要在該州勝選，就能獲得該州所有的選舉人票。
由於有穩定的票源，共和、民主兩黨通常在選前已對各自候選人所得選舉人票票數有粗略的估算，於是只需在各個搖擺州份進行重點競選活動，就能大幅提高勝率。
雖然選舉人理應按照所屬州份的民意投票，但間中亦會有選舉人不顧選民意願，倒戈投票給自己心儀的候選人。2016 年的總統選舉，特朗普就因為多個州份出現「叛逆選舉人」才得以勝選總統。
今屆大選選情難料，雖然特朗普現時民調領先，但最後會否因為「叛逆選舉人」的出現而敗選仍然是未知之數。
自特朗普在2022 年11 月宣布有意再次角逐美國總統的寶座後，他的一舉一動都備受外界關注。現時特朗普已順利成為共和黨總統候選人，而且在民調的支持度一直領先主要對手拜登，贏面似乎相當高。但有媒體分析，特朗普現時官司纏身，後續的一系列司法程序或會影響其團隊的選舉部署。
特朗普由去年3 月至今，合共遭到4 項刑事起訴，涉及共91 項重刑罪（felony）。這些案件包括：已於3月25 日在紐約開審的「偽造商業紀錄案」、試圖非法推翻州選舉結果的「佐治亞案」、司法部的「試圖推翻選舉案」及「機密文件案」。外界普遍認為，「機密文件案」的進展對特朗普現階段選情的影響最大。由於控方就「機密文件案」提出的證辭及證據充足，特朗普大機會敗訴；加上法官將案件排期到今年5 月開審，預計會打亂特朗普競選活動的行程。
然而，我認為即使特朗普在所有案件中敗訴，對其選情影響都極其有限。《美國憲法》對總統候選人的要求僅有3 項：①申請人需為本國出生的公民、②年滿35 歲及③在美國居住滿14 年。即使特朗普被法庭判處監禁，亦無阻其繼續於獄中進行競選活動。加上特朗普支持者早已認定有關訴訟是民主黨對他的政治逼害，故特朗普被定罪與否都無阻他們的支持。但由於特朗普團隊要應付訴訟產生的財務開支，競選資金或顯緊張，有可能影響他爭取搖擺州份的力度。
拜登發表任內最後一份《國情咨文》後，成功團結了民主黨。拜登團隊現時加強在各個搖擺州份競選造勢，爭取選民支持。最新民調顯示，他在這些州份的支持度都有上升的趨勢；而特朗普團隊由於資金吃緊，減少了競選活動的頻率，這或許會收窄兩人在民調上的差距。
特朗普會否就此被拜登「甩開」，目前難以妄下判斷，仍需進一步觀察。
復活節長假期前，香港特別行政區終於達成其歷史任務，《維護國家安全條例草案》於3月19日在立法會順利三讀，並全票通過；《維護國家安全條例》隨即在23日刊憲，正式成為香港的法例。至此，香港成功為《基本法》第23條自行立法，落實了全國人大「5.28決定」及《香港國安法》所規定的憲制責任及義務，完善了維護國家安全的法制和執行機制。加上過去數年，我們完善了選舉制度，順利進行了立法會選舉、行政長官選舉和區議會選舉，做到「愛國者治國」，全面提高治理水平。
第一個大趨勢是大灣區融合。特區政府經常強調香港要把握發展機遇，背靠大灣區的優勢，達致多贏，然而，通達大灣區的交通日益便利，港人北上頻繁，卻讓香港承受衝擊。
自去年2月初，香港與內地全面通關後，港人的生活及消費模式發生變化，北上消費成風，加上「港車北上」、電子支付等愈來愈普遍，這年來，港人除了北上飲啖茶食個包，還喜歡光顧倉儲式大型超市，北上配眼鏡、整牙等等，從飲食零售到專業服務，價廉物美性價比高，搶了香港不少生意。港人除了周末北上，長假期更甚，例如今個復活節假期，單是3月29日假期首日，便有70萬人次離境，當中52萬人次經陸路口岸北上，5日假期更累計有190萬人次北上，出入境口岸盛況空前，香港市面卻冷冷清清。
此消彼長，本地經濟承受這趨勢造成的衝擊，特別是冰室、茶餐廳等本地飲食業，不少老店、連鎖店都逃不過結業命運，近期頻頻傳出連鎖食肆結業的壞消息，結業潮甚至讓社交平台「執笠關注組」爆紅，叫人感慨。
舉例說，香港最缺的是土地，造地時間長、成本高，北部都會區或人工島也不能一蹴而就。那麼，我們能否與大灣區合作，更好地運用大灣區的土地資源？例如安老業，在香港買地或租地興建安老院舍都成本高昂，能否推動大灣區安老，讓香港長者在大灣區院舍居住？以目前交通配套那麼便利，屆時港人子女北上探親也很方便。
人工智能的衝擊更大。作為西方創新科技的龍頭，矽谷近10年的發展也缺乏創新，直至人工智能一鳴驚人，例如運用大型語言模型(Large Language Model, LLM)訓練人工智能，ChatGPT的表現石破天驚。人工智能可使生產流程自動化，逐漸取代人類一些工種和職位，西方社會比香港更早面對這衝擊。以目前的大趨勢而言，人工智能創造的價值，在華爾街創造了財富，蘋果(Apple)、英偉達(NVIDIA)、微軟(Microsoft)、Meta等「科技七巨頭」領跑大市，但是一般人未享受得到。
我認為長遠而言，高新科技和人工智能的發展應為人類創造更美好的生活，雖然會令一些工種消失，但同時會衍生其他新工種、新職位，香港要與世界共同面對，培養及引入科技人才，有效運用人工智能，提高生產紅利(productivity gains)。
待至中國經濟增長放緩，「中國崩潰論」、「中國見頂論」紛紛湧現。國家主席習近平在3月27日假北京人民大會堂會見美國工商界及戰略學術界代表時，明確指出，「中美關係是世界上最重要的雙邊關係之一。中美兩國是合作還是對抗，事關兩國人民福祉和人類前途命運」，又說「中國經濟是健康、可持續的」、「過去沒有因為中國崩潰論而潰論，現在也不會因為中國見頂論而見頂」，大度又有底氣。
正如習主席指出，今年是中美建交45周年，「中美關係回不到過去，但能夠有一個更美好的未來」。事實上，去年習主席和拜登在美國三藩市會面的歷史性「習拜會」，達成了一些共識，習主席認為中美關係「應該穩下來、好起來」，香港自然受惠。
香港始終是中國最國際化的城市，是中國的窗口，在「一國兩制」下，香港擁有法治和制度優勢，必須站穩「背靠祖國，聯通世界」的企位，在複雜的中美關係下靈活變通，縱使困難，仍要克服挑戰。